Brian Redican Quotations

We're optimistic that exports will improve, but probably not until the second quarter of 2006.

We've gone through a period where everything has gone right for company profits, but over the past 12 months some cracks have started to develop.

The state's doing it tough. And the fundamentals of weak house prices and record household debt mean there's not much light at the end of the tunnel.

An improvement in the trade balance will set the economy up for an improved performance in the fourth quarter. Mediocre consumer spending, the drag from net exports and declining housing construction have taken their toll on growth in the third quarter.

There remains a lingering risk of higher interest rates should signs of stronger employment and inflation emerge in coming months.

This is a very positive number and it augurs well for economic growth. It's a bright spot.

The Reserve Bank is very firmly on hold. The housing market is treading water. Investors no longer have the opportunity to get big capital gains, so they have left the market.

It's at that stage where I think policymakers will start to become concerned (about high petrol prices).

The continued buoyancy of the labor market has sustained consumer confidence and limited the fallout from the softening housing market. This, in turn, ensures that the Reserve Bank has retained a tightening bias for interest rates.

GDP is looking a lot weaker than we had anticipated and that should keep the Reserve Bank on hold for a fair while.

The household sector has really gone into its shell. We do expect to see new capacity come on stream in the mining sector, and that should support exports.

The current slowdown in consumer spending reflects factors such as slower employment growth, higher petrol prices, higher interest repayments and a slower housing market.

The market has been trying to push a rate cut, but the Governor has remained steadfast, saying there is no scope for lower rates. The Reserve Bank does have a tightening bias and is concerned by wages pressure.