Dan Niles
Dan Niles
happening problem stop time
The problem is how long will it take for the fundamentals to stop getting worse, and we don't see that happening any time soon.
believe downside estimates negative pcs remain risk stock
We remain negative on PCs and semis and believe there is still downside risk to estimates and stock prices.
close half industry latter pcs people percent ready second sells stronger versus
We're getting to the latter half of the year. and typically, the industry sells close to 20 percent more PCs in the second half versus the first half. People are getting ready in anticipation of a much stronger second half of the year.
believe booked intel loaded quarter seeing third
We believe that Intel is seeing the most front-end loaded third quarter in many years and is booked out for the quarter.
believe demand exceed fourth likely possibly quarter supply third
We believe that demand is now likely to exceed Intel's processor supply now through the third quarter and possibly into the fourth quarter.
believe call cents consensus double enable estimates good higher job lead levels margins operating several
We believe that Compaq also did a good job on the profitability front, which should enable operating margins to more than double from third-quarter levels ... this should lead to earnings-per-share at least several cents higher than the consensus First Call estimates of $0.16.
believe downside happen high poor reasonable remain sidelines stock though until
Though we believe Dell can outperform the Nasdaq in 2000 after a poor 1999, we believe this can only happen after expectations have been reset to more reasonable levels. We believe downside on the stock is to the high $30s. We remain on the sidelines until then.
excited growth hard line miss negative revenue stock top
When you miss your top line by $1 billion, the stock should go down. With negative year-over-year revenue growth it is really hard to get excited about the stock.
gives happen magnitude market miss move next pc pricing year
There could be a bloodbath in pricing in the first part of next year if they don't move inventories over the holidays. The magnitude of the miss gives you an idea of what's going to happen with the PC market next year.
huge price quarter
There has been a huge run-up in price this quarter - unbelievable results.
almost computing continuing drive enterprise expected focus fourth global gross improvement margins mix next percent produced profits revenue segment services total year
Their focus on the enterprise computing and global services segment produced 51 percent of total revenue and 90 percent of total profits in the fourth quarter. A continuing improvement in the mix is expected to drive gross margins to almost 25 percent next year from 23.5 percent this year.
believe best estimates forward likely remain unchanged
As a result, we believe forward EPS estimates at best will remain unchanged and most likely will need to be lowered.