David Rosenberg Quotations

The only reason I'm calling for a rate hike is because that's what they told us they are going to do.

When you think of all the fiscal and monetary stimulus we've had, we should have the economy growing at 5 or 6 percent. The fact that we're not is the story.

There is no question that these are trends that are going to add to people's anxiety and the process has already started.

There is no doubt that when I speak to hedge funds and real-money investors, they have some questions. They say that he has to prove his credentials right away.

The primary driver of this slowing is consumer spending. Spending will be hurt by continued elevated energy prices and a slowing in housing.

So many clients are telling us that we are just plain wrong and there is inflation everywhere. But ... the bulk of these complaints come from folks who have kids in college ... Prices set according to supply and demand are flat or falling for the most part.

Maybe we only know when 'you are there' when we get the first financial calamity, which has been part and parcel of every tightening cycle over the past three decades,

I believe the Fed is in overshoot territory.

If CEOs are just frozen in fear, ... who's going to go on a spending spree.

Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (gross domestic product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.

If the economy continues to muddle through at around 2 percent annualized growth, we could very well slip into deflation in the next two years,

If the divergence between sales and inventories continues, the inventory-to-sales ratio will breach the critical five months' supply threshold by year-end, ... Price action is sure to follow.

If the Fed is truly data dependent, then what matters most...is the data flow for the second quarter. What do we know about the second quarter? Well, not that much, but what we do know suggests a slowing to around a 2.5% annual rate.

There is a historical pattern that everyone should be aware of because each of the past three newly appointed Fed chairman began their tenure with a quick succession of interest rate hikes.

There is going to be near-term inflation. Is it going to be sustained? I doubt it.

Here's the story for equities: twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.

Has the roof collapsed? You get trends like this at the tail-end of the Fed rate-hiking cycle, and what follows next is either a soft or hard landing in the broad economy.

has stopped bleeding ... a hiring spree in 2003 looks like a low-odds bet.

Katrina's effects are being felt nationally-on the nation's transportation arteries, supply chains, chemical plants, airlines, leisure/hotels, gasoline prices everywhere and retailing. The commercial impact is widespread.

I think it does complicate the rate hike picture and the near-term interest rate outlook.

I thought this was the most amazing thing you could do for people.

I think that the U.S. consumer is hot to trot. I think you're looking at a first quarter that's going to easily top 10 percent (in retail sales increase) on an annualized basis.

I think that the U.S. consumer is hot to trot, ... I think you're looking at a first quarter that's going to easily top 10 percent (in retail sales increase) on an annualized basis.

It is basically a subtle way to flash to the market that the negative economic consequences are resonating and that the Fed may not just look at this as a temporary soft patch this time.

Over the past three decades, the Fed tightened on eight occasions, five of these saw the yield curve invert,

Out of those five times, the economy fell into recession 100 per cent of the time.

That will just reinforce the slowdown in consumer spending.

We have one of the weakest growth rates ever during a tightening cycle, and we have to ask the question why the Fed still believes it is accommodative at 3.75 percent,

Whether it's lingering layoffs, receding real wage growth or cutbacks in health/pension benefits, corporate America is now in the process of shifting its lack of pricing power onto the backs of its workforce,

We estimate the near-term loss in terms of output, employment and income in the affected area coupled with the surge in energy costs that impacts everyone will offset any future rebuilding by a factor of two to one.

With the exception of the backward-looking Q4 GDP report, the data released today surprised to the downside.

We're not sure what to make of the fact that we find out from a reporter about comments that the Fed chairman made at a dinner two days earlier.

This would provide the Fed some flexibility regarding future meetings.

When rates back up, growth slows quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.

When rates back up, growth slows quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.

When rates back up, growth slows ... quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.

When rates back up, growth slows . . . quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (gross domestic product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.

With affordability at a 20-year low, we will be keeping a close eye on the inventory numbers in 2006. Demand has rolled over just when we're seeing supply peak. That's a prescription for a price adjustment.

We are clearly in a state of economic uncertainty and the prudent thing to do in such times is to do nothing at all.

We would expect both to move back down to pre-Katrina levels in the near-term,

We think that countries and areas of activity that have been weakest in the last couple of years are likely to see the strongest rebound in growth. Thus, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands should see more marked recoveries than Spain and France, where activity has held up well.

The only factors that actually prevented the first quarter from slipping into negative territory ... were the high starting point heading into it and the pre-war spending and inventory building we saw in January. As far as the second quarter is concerned, we are clearly losing momentum as we approach it.

We are excited for the opportunity to help create value for our investment partners with this new portfolio, which is located in our core market area, while continuing to carry out our mission--to provide responsibly managed apartment communities for people who appreciate superior service and exceptional value.

Washington pundits expect such a bill to include the repeal of the Public Utility Holding Company Act, which could lead to a wave of mergers in the utility sector.

Bizarre is not a strong enough word. We've never seen productivity growth this strong headed into the fifth year of a business expansion.

As the economy continues to slow and inflation remains benign we expect the Fed will be in easing mode by the second half.

Corporate America is just a productivity machine. Non-farm businesses were able to boost their output at a 3.5 percent annual rate and cut payroll hours at an over 2 percent rate. So 40 percent of the productivity increase came from the backside of the workforce.

Energy and raw material demand in China has been one of the key drivers behind the strength in commodities. If China is raising rates and trying to slow growth, then we may see some tempering in those pressures.

Fed action is not a fait accompli -- weakness might have to extend through the second half to lead to a Fed cut.

There's nothing in the tea leaves telling us we'll be seeing much labor-market buoyancy for several months.

The whole view that this was going to be over quickly and it would be off to the races was just pie in the sky. My sense is that this could easily drag on for months. At what point does that hit people like a two-by-four?

The SARS virus may not have much of a direct impact on U.S. growth -- though we would look for some spillover to the consumer confidence data.

Technology is helping productivity. But right now it's coming at the expense of employment.

Pretty heavy to where the average person would bore pretty quickly. This magazine has none of that. This magazine focuses on faith stories

One has to wonder how long the consumer can continue to spend at ... dizzying rates without a material improvement in the labor market.

Notwithstanding the fact that the . . . CPI may look scary because of higher oil prices over the next few months, the key will be what the core numbers do, ... And I'm still expecting that they'll be benign.

Companies will eventually run out of ways to squeeze more efficiency from the existing workforce. When that happens, they'll step up the pace of hiring.

A sharp double-digit drop in natural gas prices and a decline in fuel oil and electricity prices drive our call.

As for the employment report, I think there's a danger of overreacting over the message from it because this was the third warmest January in the past 112 years.

The big surprise in 1994 was that, despite all the inflation scares -- and there was tremendous inflation worry -- core inflation actually fell in 1994.

A year ago, 'deflation' was dripping off everybody's lips. Today, core inflation is off its low, but it's about the same as it was a year ago, yet all anybody can talk about is how far the Fed will hike.

(T)hat's not a recession-maker, but it's a pinch nonetheless - it means a little less steak and a lot more bologna, fewer outings to the nightclub and perhaps one less vacation on the cruise line (but maybe more time at the blackjack table).

That shows that companies are cutting in other areas to prevent their tech infrastructure from becoming obsolete.

You need more than just the ability to spend, you need the incentive to spend. You're only going to start spending if you can prove to your board that your investment is going to pay off.

There is the pre-Katrina economy and the post-Katrina economy. Any number that's going to be important for stocks and bonds is not going to be in government reports. The most important data near-term are going to be energy futures. Those are going to be key indicators as far as interest rates are concerned.

A Bush win is good for asset managers but bad for life insurance companies.

It's a very strange mix, ... It may signal some kind of slowing, but I think I'd have to see a lot more evidence of that. It doesn't appear that consumer consumption is slowing in any meaningful way.

For every pricing power story the Fed hawks and bond bears can find, we can probably match in the opposite direction.

For an economy addicted to credit ... periodic interest rate spasms of the likes we are seeing today could easily derail the nascent turnaround from the 'growth recession' of the past nine months.

It's obvious that asset inflation has emerged as a chief policy concern. It complicates the policy picture going forward.

It may be that low rates are not the only help the economy needs. But we could be in even rougher shape without monetary ease, and 80 percent of what the Fed's already given us is behind us. We could use another dose.

It may be that low rates are not the only help the economy needs, ... But we could be in even rougher shape without monetary ease, and 80 percent of what the Fed's already given us is behind us. We could use another dose.

That's a horse with a track record that we would rather not go against.

That's a significant statement. We are hedging our bets and don't see a great risk in doing it.

The Fed seems intent on raising rates through this Katrina business on the view that the pending rebuild stimulus will trump the near-term economic loss.

The Fed may remove 'measured' or 'accommodative' from the policy statement.

The consensus was too exuberant coming into this quarter -- and probably is too exuberant for the balance of the year, as far as I can see.

The continuing story is relentless global competitive pressures and widespread excess capacity.

I'm not seeing any sort of big broadening out of inflation from the energy side. That's probably the overriding story.

Investors should be focused on regions where there are healthy balance sheets and high personal savings rates. Areas where there will be appreciating currencies, where there is pent-up demand and where there is an ability among policy makers to spur that pent-up demand.

I don't want to get too carried away by a 25-basis-point move,

For now we are assuming that the energy shock will dominate, suppressing growth in both 2005 and 2006. And the implications for earnings are negative.

For the first time in 18 years, we managed to get through one of these semiannual congressional testimonies without a bottle of Advil in one hand and a Thesaurus in the other.

These increases were in a sense artificially produced by shifting incentives as auto companies try to back away from incentives and instead lower sticker prices.

This has nothing to do with whether the yield is too high or too low or whether it's over or undervalued. And it certainly has nothing to with foreign central bank activity. It's about the business cycle.

The housing market has become so stretched that the affordability ratio for first-time buyers, the folks who drive the incremental demand in the real estate sector, has deteriorated to levels last seen in the third quarter of 1989.

The employment cost index report adds to the growing list of evidence that there is very little in the way of cost pressures in the inflation pipeline.

The equity market is climbing a wall of worry right now.

Although an inverted yield curve does not always imply an economic recession, it has predicted a profit recession 100 per cent of the time.

The economy was already clearly losing momentum heading into Katrina.

The earnings season continues to be a decent one, with Nokia beating ... expectations, though Ericsson missed.

The first of the boomers turn 60 this year. They are about to retire, and they have been spending as if they were 30, for the last 30 years.

The markets are basically not treating this as an 'if' scenario but more as a 'done deal' scenario.