David Wyss Quotations

Usually coming out of a recession, you get a real spurt in productivity, which we got, but now things are settling down to what by historical standards are still very strong gains in productivity.

We're expecting oil prices to continue to come down. They're now about $60. We expect to be down around $50 by the end of the year.

There is a risk that energy could break out into a bigger inflation problem. We have gotten through Katrina and oil prices have backed off a bit, but there is a risk that if we have a harsh winter, energy prices will rise again.

We might have a lower unemployment rate and a somewhat lower gross domestic product, but it wouldn't be a huge impact.

My guess is things will cool abruptly; the question is do they do it by June 29.

Natural gas is definitely a problem. If we have a mild to normal winter, we are OK. But if we have a colder winter than normal, we just don't have enough natural gas.

Politically, I wouldn't raise rates on the 20th. Raising rates when you are trying to recover from a disaster like this is sending the wrong message.

I have full faith in the ability of the American consumer to keep spending.

I don't know whether he's going to have much input, but it would shock me if he didn't have some. He's talking to the people at the board who are writing this stuff and making sure that things look sensible -- something that he can live with.

Because they've got the employment, the people go there. It's a virtuous circle. It works in the right direction.

Fundamentally, money you spend at the gas pump is money you don't have to spend at the mall.

I don't think he wants the markets to start thinking about the things he might change. I think he wants to take it easy at first.

GM is the story of U.S. auto manufacturing, and it's the story of U.S. manufacturing that we are importing more and more of what we consume. Manufacturing is becoming a smaller and smaller part of the economy.

There is no change for the Fed. They are more focused on the real economy. They are looking for any sign that core inflation is going up.

We're now looking at a 3 percent first quarter on top of that 1.4 percent fourth quarter. We've been the optimists, and I haven't been optimistic enough.

We've got to see what happens in October. There was an initial shock after the attack. Nobody was doing anything.

Greenspan is coming to the end of his term and he really wants to get the interest rate increases done before he leaves. He may feel he can't afford to take a meeting off.

Greenspan has had the most successful tenure in Fed history. He kept inflation under very tight control while avoiding any major recessions.

It is a good time for the government to start locking in long-term rates before they go higher. Corporations are doing it, so why shouldn't the government?

I think the hurricanes had less impact than we thought they were going to. They had a negative impact, but people were able to shift things around, and critical services came back quicker than expected.

I think the core trumps the energy prices. We know about energy prices and it's an accident about when they collect price data during the month.

I think they are struggling with how to let markets know the rate hikes are coming to an end. The problem is that anything they say will get over-interpreted by financial markets.

Other than autos, the rest of consumer spending is doing OK.

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

We don't seem to be having any trouble financing our large and growing trade deficits.

We had expected to see a bigger rebound. On the other hand, some of the pain is lifted by the fact that they did revise up both November and December, so things are still looking pretty good.

There is just no spare refining capacity around to deal with these losses. We don't have any cushion.

The data show that Americans are ill-prepared for retirement, and gained virtually no ground over these three years. The low saving rate and weaker returns in the stock market held back wealth, despite strong gains in housing. With the baby boomers rapidly approaching retirement, we need to start saving fast, and are showing no signs of doing so.

The real question is not what he does, but what he says.

We can't run econometric models. The numbers aren't good enough.

When oil prices are pushed higher by demand rather than supply shortfall, people have time to adjust. We just keep on trucking.

To me the point for the administration in this pick is getting this over with quickly.

You can live off your income if you lived the way people did in the 1950s.

This was certainly a successful launch for the 30-year bond.

We expect the stock market to have another mild gain, sort of like it did in 2005. We're looking for the market to up about 6% by the end of the year.

We did see a bit of acceleration in wages. We were up 0.4 percent in January. That may be good news for the workers, but it is something that is going to make the Federal Reserve a bit worried about the possible impact of inflation and may increase the probability that they're going to raise rates again.

Common sense says consumers have to stop spending money at some point. But consumers haven't shown much common sense lately, despite griping about gas prices.

Energy is the big wild card. We just don't know where prices will be. It will be a question of how fast oil refineries and oil pipelines comes back.

Even a Chrysler has some imported parts in it and because these Toyotas are a little more expensive, Ford might be charging more.

The second quarter is shaping up to be stronger than expected.

People see energy prices going up and they get a little worried about what they can afford to spend money on.

After September, it was positive for most of the economy except for tourism. Things like car sales came back very quickly. GM and Ford got really scared about sales so they cut prices.

Somebody was going to have to slow the (U.S.) economy down and Asia is now doing the Fed's work for it.

The bottom line is that we had a very strong quarter of growth.

Back when the program was created, elderly people were dying because they had nothing to eat and no health care. Social Security has been incredibly successful at virtually eliminating poverty among the elderly.

That's what people say but probably not what they do.

Your next European vacation is going to cost a lot more, and you're going to see lot more European tourists running around New York.

Your guess on where oil prices are going to go is as good as mine. It just depends on the Middle East and who knows what is going to happen there.

This is the continuing story of the rich getting richer. Clearly, the gains in wealth are going to the top end.

This may mean less change in the Fed statement on Tuesday, and increases the chances of a rate hike in March.

It is rather encouraging that the Fed is pointing toward a pause after the May hike. A lot of us were getting concerned that the hikes would continue into June and August. And one of the problems is that what the Fed does now affects the economy a year from now.

It's not leaking into the core inflation rate as it did back in the 1970s.

It's the '90s all over again. New technology, it's exciting, people think it's going to the sky, and people are paying accordingly.

It looks sort of in line with expectations, with some strength -- for example a rebound in communications and machinery, but also some disturbing continued weakness in the computer sector.

Consumer spending may slow down a bit more than thought. But, it won't drive us into a recession - that would probably take oil going well over $100 a barrel.

Consumers are spending their little hearts out. We are doing pretty darn good.

It's Newton's law of currency: Any overvaluation will be followed by undervaluation.

It was one of the worst days in U.S. financial history, and he dealt with the repercussions very well.

They have to accumulate dollars to keep the yuan down relative to the dollar. But since China has moved to peg the yuan to a market basket of currencies, instead of just the dollar, it's logical for them move their foreign exchange holdings to the same basket.

They like inflation where it is now. But they're worried that it's creeping up.

The Fed doesn't like to switch policy very quickly. Unless something goes wrong, I think they are going to stop (after the March move) and hold rates there for an extended period.

In Japan's case, back in 2003-2004, they feared the yen would drop too much in value and they intervened heavily in the currency markets. Then, Japan ceased intervening over the last year or so -- but this didn't have much of a negative impact on U.S. markets.

If you're going to buy bonds, that's the place to be.

If you take out gas and cars, sales were basically flat. Consumers are getting more cautious.

If you're trying to finance capital spending, you do that off saving.

I don't think there's any cliff you suddenly walk off. I'm not going to worry about a recession until we get up to $100 a barrel.

I don't see how we can avoid taking a hit and it will be coming right as we move into the Christmas buying season.

The geopolitical tensions are affecting people. They're not happy with Washington and when they're not happy about Washington, it ends up making them not happy about the economy.

The economy is living with it, and corporations are turning in strong profits despite high energy costs. People forget that energy isn't as big a part of the economy as it was 25 years ago.

The leading indicators are telling us that we have got a slowdown because of the disruption from the hurricanes, but it is not as dire as the September drop would suggest.