It's got to be the real estate number, because everything else this morning has been pretty bond-unfriendly.
I have a hard time seeing the bond market going higher from here.
The action you are seeing is probably in reaction to selling that has been going on the past few days; a recovery that looks technically driven to me.
Oil is down significantly, stocks are basically flat and bond investors are looking at overall valuations of assets and are perhaps doing a little bit of bargain shopping right now.
You get the impression traders are putting an awful lot of weight on the Fed Chairman stating there could be a pause but that this may not be the end of rate increases. We had conflicting economic data and that leaves traders with nowhere to go but the trend.
In all reality, it's been a quiet day and there's not a lot of participation. We're going into an FOMC meeting next week so everybody is sitting on the sidelines a little.
Consumers are so focused on that price at the gasoline pump that a significant rise will dampen expectations. That is certainly supportive of the bond market.
But I really think we're on hold for the number coming out tomorrow.
We've got some important numbers. It might take a real surprise number to break out of this range.
