Douglas Porter Quotations

Given that there are virtually no other signs that Canadian spending suddenly weakened in February, this sharp drop in imports is likely to prove to be a fluke.

I suspect there will be enough positive news in other areas to persuade consumers there is a light at the end of the tunnel and that the economy is moving to better times, but it will be a gradual process, and confidence may be flat in the next couple of months.

I think it will improve liquidity and the attractiveness of owning Canadian financial assets, although I don't see it as a watershed event for Canadian financial markets.

Manufacturing posted a solid rebound in December from weakness the prior month, but it is far from out of the woods.

While the economic data have been all over the place in recent weeks, there are no obvious signs that the economy is cracking in the face of record energy prices. Indeed, the export and production data have been surprisingly perky.

Usually the incentives and the ways builders are allowed to design subdivisions to allow for extra densities sooner or later reduces that cost by a lot.

While it's a bit of a surprise, the slightly downbeat news on confidence can be explained by the ongoing weakness in employment, and perhaps consumers are a little concerned about the backup in mortgage rates. But while they're becoming less confident, they're still buying -- the latest sales numbers still look good.

The results likely fully please almost no one.

These solid results suggest that the economy actually had a fair bit of momentum heading into 2003.

The thing about the quarterly figures is they're more driven by what took place at the end of the previous quarter and the start of the current quarter than what happened at end of the current quarter. These numbers tell us spending had a little more momentum heading into 2003 than the quarterly figures would indicate.

This points out that the labor market remains as tight as ever.

There really can be little debate now that Western Canada is already experiencing the closest thing to full employment in over three decades, with the jobless rate west of Ontario just barely above four per cent.

The renewed and rapid rise in the Canadian dollar may ultimately do much of (the) tightening for the bank, but we look for at least one more rate hike this year.

They're getting close to the end of tightening.

At least one spooky theme behind these moves has been mounting concern that the latest spike in energy prices will cascade into other costs and prices, drive up inflation expectations and force the Fed to be even more fearsome than expected in its tightening campaign,

It's a red flag. Any time the nation's largest retailer stumbles a bit, it's a warning sign.

Foreign private investors remain solid buyers of U.S. securities, providing important support for the U.S. dollar, even in the face of record current account deficits.

Forecasts of parity (with the U.S. dollar) are multiplying faster than bunny rabbits in May.

I'm actually encouraged by how well the economy hung in there in September and October during the worst of the energy price spikes. The bigger threat to growth is the rising interest rates.

Clearly, Alberta is ground zero for wage pressures.

Canadian consumer spending is finally poised to hit the brakes after a spectacular run earlier this year,

The industrial sector is cruising along at a moderate but not spectacular pace, and that's a good thing at this stage of the expansion.