We are probably in the process of revising our first-quarter GDP estimate up again after we moved it up last week to 4.7 percent,
People are getting defensive, setting up for payrolls. We live from payroll to payroll, and the market fiddles around in between.
He opened the door a little bit to a Fed pause, and to the chance that maybe the economy hasn't been quite as strong as he had been saying.
There will be fairly good demand for the 30-year bond.
There are some fears about inflation but people are even more concerned about what's happening in the corporate credit market.
Pressure from bunds is working its way into the Treasury market. Bunds and Treasuries are moving hand in hand.
There is very much of a flight to quality, although by now financial markets are settling down a bit.
Historically, dollar weakness does lead to higher back end rates.
What they are doing is sending a signal they are no closer to the end of the tightening cycle than they were at the January meeting. We have little doubt that the new Fed is concerned about inflation and, probably more importantly, inflation expectations.
We're approaching oversold conditions, but then we've been getting data that has been coming in strong and which in one way justifies this.
