Greg Valliere Quotations

The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.

O'Neill's gaffs have hurt him. There aren't a lot of Republicans on the Hill who like him. But he seemed to have the president's confidence.

O'Neill's departure removes an impediment for a big stimulus package, ... He had been lobbying against a package, worried about a budget deficit.

Right now, it's open season on him. Most Republicans view him as a liability.

My take is that they know they've got a tough selling job ahead, ... I think they have to sell it (the policies) to Wall Street, to the capital, and to the public. The administration's conclusion is that Snow isn't the best salesperson for the job.

On one hand, he seems more palatable to Wall Street than Dean, in that his positions on trade and taxes are more moderate.

One of the big stories coming out of this is the inability to get anything done in the next two years. Therefore ... the budget surplus is going to pile up dramatically because Congress won't agree on big tax cuts or big spending hikes.

If they exchange gold wedding bands (the) price of gold will go up. If they travel to Europe on their honeymoon, the dollar will strengthen. If (Treasury Secretary) Robert Rubin and other administration officials are there, the Fed won't tighten again.

If this election uncertainty drags on that long, you've got to think the air of uncertainty in the country will infect consumers and consumer spending.

Bush said in the state of Washington, right before the Washington primary, that he had problems with the suit. He indicated he didn't necessarily favor a breakup. The next day he sort of retracted the comments, but he is on record as saying that he really opposes a breakup. So, I think the company would like to wait until after the election.

Bush is going to get a post-election free pass on virtually all economic issues for the next few months.

I'm at a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election,

I have argued with great futility that this entire argument is based on a flawed premise. If you use a more realistic GDP assumption, based on what we've seen over the past few decades, Social Security won't go bankrupt.

If business had serious objections to him, he wouldn't have been nominated.

If the dollar were to threaten below 120 yen again, they'll intervene again. I think they've got to improve their export sector. They've got to export their way out of this.

He needs to restore investor confidence, ... It's extremely unlikely he would say anything that would be viewed negatively by the markets. He's going to make it clear that we are not looking at the abyss and we are not looking at a major recession.

There is a new climate in Washington. Even the appearance of impropriety can do in a career.

I think it (Friday's report) is incredibly important from a market point of view. But I'm not sure that swing voters in rural Ohio are going to be into the non-farm payroll number.

I think it's bad karma when you start talking down your own currency; it smacks of desperation. If this turns into a rout, that will prove that classic adage -- be careful what you wish for.

I thought all along Edwards was the logical choice. He's so talented as a campaigner, and he brings a lot of enthusiasm, sex appeal and pizzazz to the ticket.

I thought all along Edwards was the logical choice, ... He's so talented as a campaigner, and he brings a lot of enthusiasm, sex appeal and pizzazz to the ticket.

I think William Webster is a man of unquestionable integrity, but he doesn't really understand that business.

I thought there would be something a little gentler. This is very harsh.

I think we're very close. ... The White House has put tremendous pressure on the Hill to do something.

I think what we all are hoping for is resolution sooner rather than later. I'm not sure that Gore's speech at noon today would reinforce the belief that this would get wrapped up quickly. (Some) segments of the market will do well whether it's Microsoft or drug stocks, but I think it might be a little bit premature.

I think what we all are hoping for is resolution sooner rather than later,

I think Bush would be a clear favorite.

I think at the Fed they believe we're getting near full employment. You've got unit labor costs going up. If we get a very strong jobs number, I don't totally rule out a 50-basis point (half of a percentage point) hike in June.

It gives the bond market a comfort level that you have a replacement just as vigilant on inflation as Greenspan was.

I think sometimes after we have this type of party, there is a hangover -- and this comes in '05, ... The new Congress in '05 will make efforts to restrain growth. They may not rescind the tax cuts, but there will be spending restraint. But between now and then, it's just a party.

I think that an awful lot of Democrats feel that it's time to throw in the towel, so it's a guess that he will concede today,

I think everyone knows it will start moving higher because of all the layoffs we've seen so that will probably just tell us what we already know,

I think political strategies now are in agreement that the public doesn't want a big huge change on anything, whether its health care or the contract with the gold standard.

I think Greenspan realizes that if he doesn't move tomorrow, he may have to do 50 basis points at the end of January, which could look panicky.

I think Greenspan, last Thursday, really sent a signal that he wants 50 basis points, ... By saying that the GDP (gross domestic product) growth is close to zero, he certainly encouraged the belief that we get half a point.

I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze. But everyone said all the numbers this week would be ignored, and the ISM number caused a big sell-off in the bond market.

I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze,

I think it will be months and months before you see this clarified.

I think Microsoft would like to wait until after the election, and maybe if George W. Bush wins, they could get treated better by a Bush Justice Department. I think they're delusional if they think that's going to get them out of their problem, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's in the backs of their minds.

That's the question, certainly, for all our clients on Wall Street. They're resigned to Clinton getting re-elected, but the real issue is if it's not by 10 points, but by 18 or 19 -- if it's the latter, then I think certainly the House will go Democratic, ... The Senate is a tougher case to make, but in a blow out, even the Senate could go.

My bottom line is that this not catastrophic for the Bush agenda,

We'll probably get more rate cuts tomorrow, but I think you will probably see something on the fiscal side too. You may even get a little more on the tax side. Even Democrats agree that we might need a payroll tax cut,

This was a pretty ugly weekend. You've got to say that the rhetoric got turned up two or three notches with people talking about stealing an election,

You have to say that it could be a hollow victory, a pyrrhic victory, for the eventual winner if you will. We had a situation back in 1876, I'm told, where Rutherford B. Hayes won, but he was called Ruther 'fraud' B. Hayes for his whole term, and I think there's going to be a lot of sniping at the eventual winner as someone perhaps who won a tainted election,

We should have economic growth of more than 3 percent this quarter. I think the Fed is concerned about a possible housing bubble and about us getting close to full employment. I think this is one of the rare occasions were the market has it wrong.

Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of $56 billion over five years, or $40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild ? it's almost a rounding error.

Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.

Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked,

Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?

The wording of the statement will be very significant ? does it make it clear that the Fed is prepared to do more. It will be an important clue about what we might get going forward.

Right now the markets are viewing this as if it's going to be quick and painless.

Are there any real protectionist proposals that have chance of enactment? No. The most negative thing I would say is that the prospects for further trade liberalization are not great, but what we've got in place will stay in place.

This is not comparable to 2000. If we were talking 3,000 or 4,000 votes, it'd be a big story. But I think the markets will perceive this as a temporary delay of the inevitable.

A lot of actions, like going after the drug companies, will never make it through the House, ... Congress is hawkish, period, and will stay hawkish.

There's a growing concern that the White House is out of touch. He has to show more empathy, and he hasn't done a good job on that.

There's an adage that the Fed cuts or hikes one time too many.

The next few months are really crucial. If it's clear by the end of winter to most Americans that the economy has turned, the economy won't be a big negative for Bush. But it's a close call.

That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.

That's a classic move in both parties -- appeal to the base to win primaries, then move to the center in a general election -- and I think he will do that. He will cite his record as governor, which was moderate, especially for Vermont.

That may be one of reason (the Dow is) 9,800 -- maybe the markets have already begun to worry about the outcome not being known.

It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,

It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.

The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.

The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.

They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.

The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.

The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).

I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.

If the President is really crippled I would look at the dollar to see whether there really is a market impact,

If you look at who the markets would be the most comfortable with, and that has to be one of the top criteria, then Feldstein has got to be the No. 1 pick,

in the final analysis, I don't think the election outcome has changed all that much.

I really think when you talk about pocketbook issues that affect the electorate, people think about the Nasdaq (composite index) and the Dow Jones (industrial average). If we got another rate hike and the market sold off on that, I think people would be displeased. If there's no rate hike on August 22 and the market rallies, you've got to say that helps (Al) Gore.

I personally think the 1992 analogy has been overdone.

By the middle of the fall, if there's a feeling that the economy has withstood this blow, then Congress might be able to return to a more traditional agenda.

If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.

He can afford to tilt at windmills, because he's Warren Buffett. But I doubt he can really influence the Republican leadership.

For the people who experience it, it's a tragedy, but for the country as a whole, we can absorb it.

The key variable here is the consumer. As of now, consumer spending is way down so that may be the most critical thing they'll look at,

This idea that the Fed is close to done is very puzzling,

You've got a recession in the auto and computer industries, you've got inventories piling up, you've got mediocre consumer spending, you've got a terrible stock market. I think the time to cut rates is now and I think they are in a good position to do it. If the Fed shows tomorrow that they realize this economy needs stimulus, I think it would be a wonderful gift for the stock market.

The general tone of the rhetoric form Gore has been quite hostile.

The economy is so strong, revenues are coming in at a rate that no one predicted. What it came down to was they had to decide how much more new spending they could add and how much more they could cut taxes.

The combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus right now is the largest I've seen in years. It's good for GDP. If the economy starts to hum, stocks should do well.

And forget about getting any new oil or natural gas out of Alaska.

The markets would be perfectly happy with gridlock.

The markets until recently have been oblivious to the possibility of a Kerry win.