Homi Kharas is a British economist who has been a senior fellow and deputy director for the global economy and development program at the Brookings Institution since 2005.[1] (wikipedia)
And if this slowdown took place in 2004, it would be offset by an acceleration of Japanese imports from the region and higher global trade growth,
To take advantage of these new export opportunities, the region's going to have a lot of job turnover. And most countries in the region don't have unemployment insurance. New mechanisms to help people as they move from one job to another will be important.
The recovery is at least six months further off, perhaps nine months. It is important to remember we are talking about a direct impact on the lives of people. This delay will mean fewer jobs and less household income.
China's efforts to improve corporate governance and undertake a broad range of structural and institutional reforms will further enhance its competitive position as a financial and trade center of gravity in the region.
As poverty comes down in the region, we are likely to see a shift in the drivers of growth from exports more towards domestic demand.
Although it is true that slower growth in China would hurt other economies in the region, our view is that the impact would be modest.
A lot of the growth is being fueled by exports. Growth is very broad based. Coming into 2006, things look quite strong.
One wants to make sure that it continues to build and not to be too far ahead of the curve in monetary policy if at the same time fiscal policy is also tightening.
This is an economic cycle which is just starting to build,
