Hugh Johnson Quotations

There are big risks when you get leveraged,

When it appears as though the governors of the Federal Reserve believe that the end of the rate increases is near, that's very good news for investors. A lack of ambiguity from the Federal Reserve is always a little bit of a shocker.

What we're seeing from Lehman is that market conditions improved through the summer, and that conditions are likely to continue improving. That's showing up in the earnings and in the detail of their reports.

We're moving beyond that -- the market's almost immune to the scandals now.

We're forever in search of the Holy Grail of investing and that's some formula to give us the answer, ... That's the whole problem. These things work - until you try to use them.

ultimately extremely good news for the health of the market.

Would I bottom fish in these industry groups? Emphatically no, ... I see no reason to believe these problems will be solved anytime soon.

When you say the stock market is overvalued, you imply that the stock market is going down. But there is a touch of lunacy in every bull market -- stocks can become even more overvalued. A rational investment policy in an irrational world is suicide.

We did have a little rain last Friday and Saturday, but this is the biggest rainfall we've had in months.

Yesterday's weak ISM number shows the manufacturing sector is just limping along. Another report this week suggests that Friday's August employment report may not be very good. Worries about the economy resurface and are reflected in stocks,

Yes, it creates volatility around the world when they pounce. As a small investor, you should keep an eye on hedge fund activity?It's going to be a part of our financial landscape. You're going to have to live with that.

We had a very solid move up in stocks in the first quarter. There's a good chance that what the markets will be left with is a great deal of uncertainty or even the belief that more rate increases are coming.

When the markets struggled for a technical bounce in the morning, that was investors sending a message that we're either heading toward an economic recession or toward a profits recession.

We might get blindsided by some (hedge fund) announcement that nobody's anticipating, ... You worry about another big bolt out of the blue.

Like any indicator, whether it's the Super Bowl or anything else, it's sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's just not very rational to conclude that if January is a bad month, the market will have a bad year.

Momentum investors are looking for something that works. What works is technology.

One message we get is that the stocks people buy when they're scared -- basic materials, beverages, foods -- did not do as well. Investors are more optimistic about the economy.

Mutual funds are clearly a very big reason why the stock market is declining, ... This is the other side of the mountain.

Obviously the situation turns very heavily on interest rates,

Obviously it's very bone-chilling when you hear his words. Announcements like this tend to stall us momentarily, but they don't derail the rally or recovery.

never got the impression that margin debt was part of the support for Internet stocks until the last two months.

Nobody knows where the market is going. You just have to take your best bet.

One of the most important signs of a bull market is when the bull market manages very, very bad news like we've had today. So in that sense, you've got a very encouraging performance today.

One of the most important factors driving bonds, clearly, and stocks, less clearly, is the expectation that the euro will fall further, ... It is attracting capital from European markets to the U.S.

I don' think we are ready for a major move,

Four days ain't enough, ... It's still too soon for investors to jump back on board until you get more confirmation from the stock market. We've had so many false starts before.

I expected the market to inch or edge forward. I wouldn't have expected this in my wildest dreams.

I get worried about so much optimism and the fact that the market is overvalued,

If the Fed raises rates three times, they're not doing it just to have fun. Life is good.

Hardware, software and semiconductors are the three top-performing groups right now, and there has been a decline in oil prices. These things are pushing the markets up.

There are no real hiding places, ... But I would tell investors they shouldn't get too scared by what's happening. Don't forget that 70 percent of the time, stocks are going up. I don't know where the market is going in 30 days, but I know where it's going in 30 years.

I think it's a bygone conclusion that they will raise rates in January, but there's also debate about whether they'll raise rates in March.

It confirms that as we started the fourth quarter the economy continues to slow, ... At the same time that the economy is slowing, there is ongoing tightness in the labor markets and ongoing upward pressure on wages.

It injects some uncertainty. The worry is the Chinese economy will slow too much, and that will send markets down worldwide.

It is a down week after some predictable profit taking following a strong January. But the excuse for that profit taking was the Fed. We walked away from last Tuesday's meeting in which they raised interest rates, knowing that they will likely raise rates again at their March meeting.

I think the market has managed the inevitable profit-taking very well, but there's still a lot of skepticism out there,

I think the M&A activity is certainly the headline, with Oracle-PeopleSoft and a hangover of Sprint-Nextel,

I think you can spread yourself among many sectors,

I think we're going to edge our way higher but I don't think it's going to be a barn burning.

I think we've seen technology take a tumble a number of times and come right back. Most professional money managers look at a technology slump as a buying opportunity.

I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.

It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.

I think the yield has worried investors. Some investors believe that it's a signal that a recession lies ahead. I believe that is a faulty interpretation.

I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.

Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).

Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.

I see business spending recovering, but not in telecommunications or telecommunications equipment.

On the surface level it's a real simple story. Interest rates are rising and the outlook for the economy and earnings is darkening every step of the way.

Really they're companies with consistent price performance, ... In other words, it's better than the S&P and consistent earnings performance.

Ordinarily you would expect the stock market to rise or do better, but it's not, and I think the reason it's not is it's being held in check by high oil prices.

Ordinarily, we would have a technical bounce at this level. But then the question is, have you seen a bear market bottom? I don't know if we have at this point.

Oracle set a really bad tone for things.

Long-term interest rates are low and I'd prefer to buy when rates are higher and more attractive. As a federal government issuer or taxpayer, I'd be excited but, as an investor, I just don't see the appeal.

Long term interest rates are higher now than they were in the second and third quarters, and debt levels are higher too. Yes, consumer spending will continue to expand, but it will be slower.

I think everybody knew this before, but this kind of takes it from the back page and moves it to the front page, ... He certainly carries a lot of weight in the market.

I tell my clients to look at the market once a week. It does a lot for your judgment if you take away the day-to-day swings.

It is encouraging that the market has been able to hold together. The overall message is that the events in Southeast Asia will in time have an impact on the U.S. economy, but not a major impact in 1998. And that is really good news.

That was a signal that we were headed toward distress.

That's the situation today, ... Since that's the case, I'd be more inclined to think this will be a negative year than a positive year.

Merck reminds us that this is about earnings.

We're all watching the same stuff. Like sheep.

We have such speculation in Internet stocks already that it's earnings will be keenly watched and could stir up more speculation or spur a decline, depending on their results.

We got down too far too fast. You reach a level that attracts buyers.

Usually, when you have a stock market mania, it's driven largely by individual investors borrowing money to buy stocks at prices that are too high. And usually, when a bubble becomes unwound, it's because of margin calls.

Usually when they're cheap, the story is not a pretty story,

Today the market is pausing a bit, given the strong performance last week. There is lot of acquisition activity, which is giving the market some lift, particularly because oil prices are stable.

Today the market is pausing a bit, given the strong performance last week.

You know, we had four great years because we had declining inflation and interest rates. There's been a sea change. We now have inflation and interest rates actually heading higher. That makes things entirely different - you can't get away with high-priced earnings or overvalued stocks and so we're going through this adjustment to a new reality.

We need to watch the Japanese parliament and see if they do anything about their banking crisis.

The one thing you don't want to ignore is the stock market itself,

The problem is there are exceptions. You're still left with the question: Is this the time when it won't work?

Those are some 'old economy' picks. But a lot of those companies, quite frankly, look very 'new economy' to me, lately.

Those of us who said technology is immune, that was too strong a statement.

When you see buying in that (technology) sector in a bear market, it implies that there are investors out there who see improvement around the corner, and it's usually technology and cyclical stocks that lead the market out of a downtrend. The bias towards Friday's data may be that the data will be consistent with the view that the economy is showing some expansion.

We are gradually, slowly building investor confidence that the profit recession will end, ... What's leading to the bullishness is not anything you are currently looking at. Earnings are dismal, but investors are becoming more optimistic that the profits recession will end.

Tomorrow, the market will probably continue upward driven by the dollar, but it won't go up much because of caution before the employment figures.

The question is when will the earnings recovery begin and how strong will it be.

The question I get asked a lot is what's it going to take to get investors back in the game. One is leadership, for the President to take some steps and make some statements that show he's ahead of the curve.

Time to dig in and start to go.

The decline will divert capital flows away from U.S. investments.

We call it a potential critical fire danger stage. We extremely discourage any outside burning during a red flag.

Trying to manage money in this environment, you can't imagine how stressful this is.

Tobacco is the best performing industry in every single bear market,

There are a growing number of investors who believe the market has hit bottom. Investors with cash are feeling pressure to get in. Good markets beget good markets.

The price is down some, but it's clear that oil is at a level that raises serious questions about the U.S. economy and earnings going forward.

The reason the (stock) market is struggling is that concerns about the economy and earnings are deepening, ... We don't see anything that says the current profit recession is going to end.

The good news was good enough to more than offset the worries about wages and Federal Reserve policy. There is an emotional component to the market today. Some speculative spirits are starting to stir.

We'll have some bewildering rises and some bewildering, if not shocking, declines.

To some extent everybody is a little exhausted. In the absence of big news we'll see a quieter day. It feels like we were hit by a tidal wave over the past three or four days and today is like the aftermath, picking up the pieces.

The reason for the (technology) decline is the combination of the Cisco earnings and the comments from CEO John Chambers. He basically said what Intel said recently: that customers are getting very cautious and that spending on technology is slowing.

The recent rise in interest rates has created some uncertainty about the bull market's longevity.

(This) week is time for two steps forward,

(This) week is going to give us a lot of important information about the start of the third quarter,

What's driving the market is speculation. You put together actual year earnings, you also calculate price-to-earnings multiples right now and what investors are paying for is really out of whack. It's too high.

What Oracle did is it demoralized the rest of the technology sector.

You have to be careful about prejudging this - I've seen so many investors burned at the stake thinking things like 'Value is about to come back,' ... Let the market tell you what to do. Don't tell the market what to do.

You had a pretty good move in biotech this year, and biotech really has quite frankly lifted the health care and the drug stocks recently because investors have become somewhat defensive -- say in the last month or so -- and have also, on a relative basis, performed fairly well.

When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.

This thing that bothers me is you get into markets like this and they can go from being overvalued to extremely overvalued,

There have been a lot of high-profile companies taking a lot of extraordinary drops. When things go south for a company, they really go south.