It's a meager year for bond returns compared to what may be in the offing in other asset classes.
Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices. It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.
With pension funds and individual investors keen to address the lack of commodity exposure in their portfolios, the re-discovery of this ancient and not-so-alternative asset class should help sustain the first great commodity uplift in three decades.
The statement will not tell the final story. I believe the Fed finale really is data dependent.
We're not at the top. With the Fed still moving to 5.50 in our view, maybe at least 5.25 to 5.40 10-year yields would not be out of the question.
There's expectation that rates will go higher. Why buy on par when the price will be less than par next week.
