Jens Nordvigis a Danish-born economist specializing in foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policy. He is the founder of Exante Data... (wikipedia)
People were pricing in some kind of China revaluation and we had one, but it was very small. So there was disappointment with the degree of the China move.
Historically, the pull towards the center in European politics has been incredibly powerful. From Italy to Germany, it has been almost impossible for non-centrist forces to obtain real influence.
Under normal circumstances with this kind of figure, you would expect to see significant dollar weakening. The fact that you're not seeing that seems to indicate that people have quite a bit of appetite to take on long dollar positions.
Japanese interest rates continue to price in tightening from the Bank of Japan. We think it's a bit premature, but the currency market is taking notice.
People are starting to reassess Fed expectations and that's triggered the dollar move.
Many have wondered if Greece's economy would get so bad that it would eventually break away from the Eurozone - a move that could encourage other countries to follow and therefore splinter the currency union.
We are looking for 110 yen in three months, and we could well hit 100 yen later this year.
This trend where the Chilean peso has weakened with Brazil and Mexico doesn't really have anything to do with Chile at all. We think it's a very good entry point.
We also judge that the dollar is vulnerable from a structural perspective. External imbalances in the U.S. are not a key market focus at the moment, but this could change on signs of weakening flow support.
When you have risk aversion in Japan, the normal day-to-day outflows that happen in a normal market environment slow down.
The thing to watch now, once the 15 minutes' 'noise' after the number is out of the way, is whether there will be a resumption of the weak dollar trend.
You're likely to see Asian currencies participate even more.
It's a very long time since we've had so much uncertainty about a Fed meeting. That's what's making the situation so volatile.
Data like this support the idea that not everything in the U.S. is strong. The Fed will require strong growth rate to keep going with rates.
They are going to tighten one last time in April. Risk on the economic growth is on the downside. This doesn't provide great reason for the bank to go further.
A further significant upward shift in rate expectations seems unlikely in the near term given the current Fed language and the uncertainty about the strength of the data ahead of the March meeting.
If you just analyze, historically, the chances of getting two quarters of more than a 5 percent gain in the dollar index, it has happened only two times since the '70s, so it's very rare.
The dollar is going to have a hard time. Investor expectations for the Fed will run out of steam.
