John Ryding Quotations

The plunge in durable goods orders in January is entirely due to volatility in transportation. The underlying details of this report are much stronger than the headline.

There is no doubt in my mind that inflation is low and heading lower. I think the patient hand should be willing to accumulate bond positions here.

If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.

From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.

There are obviously going to be losers and there are going to be winners from the stronger dollar. The U.S. consumer is the clear winner.

I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.

I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.

I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.

I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.

Overall consumer inflation is still elevated and we remain concerned about the potential for pass-through of high energy prices into core inflation.

Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region ended the year with good momentum.

With the Fed maintaining an economic-weakness bias, Greenspan is more likely to be concerned with the signs of further economic weakness in this report rather than worrying about the increase in average hourly earnings.

We are going through a period of weakness in March and toward the end of February. And that relates to things like Japanese (fiscal) year-end and a few other technical factors. I think getting on the March 30 FMOC meeting, the Fed (will do) nothing that reassures people . . . and I think we set ourselves up for an April bond rally.

The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.

The decline in productivity was a quirk of the slow growth of GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which we expect to rebound in the first quarter.

This report is largely an energy story, but the size of the increase can't be easily dismissed.

With energy prices pushing up overall inflation again, there remains the risk of pass-through into core inflation.

We see the funds rate rising to 5% by the May 10 FOMC meeting and we see an increasing risk of a 5.25% fed fund rate by the middle of the year.

You have to remember it's only exceptional and prolonged heat that changes trends, since the Commerce Department seasonally adjusts out all typical heat. The game is to try to figure out if the weather is seasonally abnormal. Except for this week, we've had a pretty normal summer in the Northeast.

Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the Feds informal target range of 1-2 pct.

Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the ( Federal Reserve 's) informal target range of one-two percent.

Energy prices do matter, especially to the public's perception of inflation.

There's no doubt there's political pressure on the Fed to do nothing on September 20th. The Fed will allow economics to overrule the politics of the situation.

There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.

The solid trend in payroll growth has been maintained into February. Reduced labor market slack, illustrated by the decline in the unemployment rate since June 2003, appears to be putting upward pressure on wage increases.

This increasing activism by the Justice Department seems to be applying a model of competition that applied to 19th-century America, rather than 21st-Century America.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

Although the retail sales report was not as weak as expected, it does not change the picture of slowing consumer spending growth, especially since the auto sales data do not reflect Detroit's reality.

This means people will be able to go out and refinance their house where they may not have been able to do before and I think that we have to remember this isn't over. I suspect the Fed will cut rates again in November and that will continue to keep a lid on borrowing costs and hopefully will compensate for some of the lack of credit flows to corporations that problems in the bond market have caused.

As we work toward a reopening of the equity markets, we believe that a cut in rates is even more important than it was before.

It's not the first time in the history of OPEC that we've had problems with cutbacks, and when the price goes up, then the cheating starts.

The bond market had a pretty good move upwards yesterday, but I don't think we're going to get back to that kind of mania to buy Treasuries that we had in the month of September.

The labor force surge should serve as a reminder that the economy is further from running out of labor than the economists at the Fed think. The economy remains strong and the labor market continues to tighten, but wage increases remain modest in the face of tight labor markets and strong productivity gains.

The consequences of taking the wrong course of action - in this case not cutting rates - are potentially greater than the cost of cutting rates.

The underlying details of this report paint a stronger picture of the manufacturing sector, as evidenced by the robust growth rate of orders excluding transportation over the last three months.

And also there's a large rush of supply of corporate bonds, for example, coming to market. So we're getting a lot of supply this time of year, where normally it would be more quiet time for issuers.

The management of communication here and the way things were said has, I think, undermined a little bit of Fed credibility for now.

The level of the stock market is always an issue for the Fed but I don't think it's such an issue that it's going to influence Fed policy.

The level of claims remained low and consistent with solid job creation.

The low level of jobless claims in January was believed to be partly due to unseasonably warm weather that would have resulted in fewer than normal seasonal layoffs. However, despite a return to more seasonally typical weather in February, unemployment claims have remained low.