Consumer confidence numbers will most likely plummet in September.
It may not be so bullish for the stock market, because we are a consuming nation.
It's a pretty big drop. It shows that we didn't have a large flow of imports and we know anecdotally that those cheaper imports, especially for the Christmas season, are coming.
I think the greater risk is that higher energy prices will cause consumers to pull back, slowing overall economic growth.
I think the Fed is erring on the side of caution, as a central bank should. That's why they left the direction in place. It could be this time they're holding tight too long. We'll know that only in hindsight, as unfortunate as that is.
Put in perspective, these levels are as high as they were in the late 1960s, so the fact that we've come off a little bit is most likely the reflection of anticipation of higher interest rates.
He is obviously establishing his credentials as an inflation hawk, which is of course what the global financial markets want to hear.
This does imply we'll see higher CPI inflation. The bond yield will move up as long we continue to see greater-than-expected data.
It's way too premature to talk about a recovery.
On a year-on-year basis, before this number was released, housing starts are down 11 percent. So you can see they've gently rolled over, showing higher interest rates are taking their toll on some parts of the housing industry.
