This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
Everybody knows they (investors) want to buy high yielding currencies and the yen still seems like the best currency to sell to fund that.
The bin Laden tape has led to some dollar selling. The tape fits with the view of those who think the U.S. economy is at risk of falling into a sinkhole.
We are seeing a slowdown, but we're not necessarily seeing a slow economy. The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we're going to have to wait and see more evidence before we can conclude that it isn't a threat.
We are seeing a slowdown, but we're not necessarily seeing a slow economy, ... The Fed is still going to be on alert for inflation, and we're going to have to wait and see more evidence before we can conclude that it isn't a threat.
Given that the economic data will be strong, people will wonder why the Fed is not moving, which could cause some volatility in the markets. But we think the Fed will remain on hold for quite some time.
We're seeing Japan aggressively acting to keep the yen steady against the dollar and stop the process of broad dollar weakness from turning into broad yen strength.
Whether you're going into business for yourself or not, you're still looking at a very anemic job market.
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
I would point to the core PCE deflator, which gave a modest upside surprise, ... This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ... and might have markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed.