Lee McPheters Quotations

Construction is at record high levels throughout the West. It is likely that as home building cools, those states that have seen construction hiring booms will record job losses as the cycle begins to subside.

Due to population growth, it is reasonable that construction would account for 8.8 percent of all jobs in Western states, somewhat higher than the national average of 5.4 percent.

For example, population growth varies from state to state, with states in the Sunbelt attracting new residents from other states. It is reasonable to expect faster-growing states such as Arizona and Nevada to continue to see stronger housing markets.

Although the concept of a real estate bubble has attracted much attention, home prices in the U.S. at the national level have not declined since the days of the Great Depression.

The three fastest-growing Western states -- Nevada, Arizona and Utah -- are expected to slow down over the next two years. Still, it is likely that these states will be in the top 10 for job creation yet again this year and next.

As rates continue to rise, some local markets may see a backing off of prices and a soft landing as appreciation returns to historically normal levels.

There's an issue lurking that is new to us, and that is the rapid escalation of home prices. Last year, we moved above the national average (in home prices). It won't stop people moving here, but they're going to live further and further out, so far out that their commute represents a significant part of the day and freeway congestion. We'll suffer growing pains as a result of housing prices.

It's certainly one of best years we've seen in this century.