Marc Levesque
Marc Levesque
bank canada data investors providing rate reason risks sell upside
The data aren't providing any reason for the Bank of Canada to pause. The risks are on the upside for rate increases. Investors are going to sell bonds.
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What we're seeing in terms of currency movements - and it will probably continue at least over the near-term - is a shift in global monetary policy expectations. There's a gearing-down of expectations for Fed tightening, coupled with increased tightening expectations elsewhere.
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This report paints a picture very similar to the fall survey and shows an economy practically at full capacity.
bank canada focused market reaction strength tightly
There's little market reaction I think for two things. First, the strength was anticipated to some extent. Second, the market is very tightly focused on what the Bank of Canada is doing this afternoon.
job tale
This is really a tale of two job markets.
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That's not suggesting to me that he sees himself with having a whole battery of rate hikes going forward. I would not be surprised at all to see them go one more time and then pause.
appetite bank beyond canada further giving hikes impression percent rate
Most importantly, the Bank of Canada is not giving the impression that it has much of an appetite for further rate hikes beyond the 4 percent level.
bite exports growth performance poised quarter
Real exports are poised to take a bite out of Canada's growth performance for the first quarter as a whole.
canadian decision dollar fed market rate weakness
The weakness in the Canadian dollar is essentially a follow-through from yesterday's Fed rate decision that has the market anticipating at least one more hike.
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Currently, the Canadian dollar has been on a tear, an absolute tear. It's been massively outperforming other currencies.
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The Bank of Canada cannot afford to be complacent if it wants to keep inflation in check over its 18-24 month time horizon ... Look for the overnight rate to peak at 4 percent.
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In our view, there is still is every reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to nudge its rate higher, and we are not changing our call for a four per cent (overnight) rate by April.