Ned Riley Quotations

The only concern I do have is I'd like to see a couple more months (of data) put together here before we declare this torrid, hot economy as into another phase of gearing down. I'm not as optimistic yet that we have slowed everything.

There are certain areas that seem to be giving a little better story, not a great story, but stabilization.

Until we get to that point where investors truly feel that there is no floor to stock prices, that isn't the full capitulation. There's still an unusual amount of optimism.

Whether the catalyst was the cessation of tax selling or just a rally from a truly depressed area, the Nasdaq is attracting some bargain hunting. I would suggest stocks were over discounting shorter-term problems that have already been announced.

We're going to see more of the same for the next few weeks, unless something comes in that indicates a pick-up in activity in the economy or on the corporate level,

We're going to have more people talking about the Fed becoming less aggressive, which will be neutral or negative for the market because the market has been feeding off low interest rates. I don't think the Fed commentary is going to be as predictable and direct as the last meeting.

We're back to looking at the fundamentals and, at least temporarily, avoiding gossip and rumors.

There is a serious shift going from the growth companies in the old economy to growth companies in the new economy that have been quite tarnished over the past nine months. The tech recession was the catalyst and we are genuinely seeing a slowdown in old economy sectors.

There is a willingness on the part of investors to buy premium names in anticipation of a recovery, but I really think there isn't a lot of conviction on the part of buyers or sellers.

There are worries about mechanical failures, lost ballots, all kinds of things. But I think the market is prepared for a delay in the results. I don't think it will be as much of a surprise as it was in 2000.

The profits numbers will be mostly dismissed in the first quarter as a casualty of war. Now we'll see how much momentum we can pick up from the reverse of war negativity.

We've taken a couple of body blows and are still standing. And I think that's pretty encouraging.

Money funds are still grabbing about 50 percent of share of the money that's coming into mutual funds, ... So I think investors are a little bit guardedly optimistic, but still a little concerned about the outlook in terms of the volatility and the economy, probably.

Right now I think you're in the indiscriminate phase of selling. There's more of (a feeling of) anticipation and paranoia about the possibility that some of the Dow stocks could disappoint even further.

One of the pockets of strength has been in the health care area. You could flip a coin on the Nasdaq -- it's been a very tepid and guarded rally in the Nasdaq . But I think the Dow gains will prevail.

I would be very surprised to see a beneficial report.

I don't believe in these kinds of indicators, but I do believe in momentum. The momentum in January was good and I do think we will have an up year, but not because of an indicator.

I believe this is the beginning of a strong move higher.

I believe the group is going to be able to grow at least 8 to 10 percent in the future and I think the S&P earnings are going to slow down to maybe 7 or 8 percent, ... So this group could have actually a premium growth rate and yet a discount to the market that's, at least, 50 percent, if not lower.

But the question is more about economic growth.

But after all the corporate governance issues, there's a tendency now of erring on the side of ultra-conservatism in terms of what companies say about future quarters and that's going to continue.

Fundamentally, I think that many of the reports, from companies like Intel, Apple and IBM do portray a relatively sound tech environment. But people are anxious right now generally.

For the rest of the month, the focus for the stock market will be on interest rates.

Ignore the negative economic news because the market's discounted most of it,

If the Fed is committed to slowing the economy, then I do think demand for technology will slow.

We took two steps forward last week and only 1 step back so far this week. So there is some comfort in that. Hopefully we'll get through this weekend without incident and that should give people some reassurance.

What we have now is an economy that's slowing down. I think we're going to see some cyclicality to tech earnings.

What we have now is an economy that's slowing down, ... I think we're going to see some cyclicality to tech earnings.

The rally in the first two weeks of January was based on expectations that we would have a decent reporting period. Largely, that's been true, with many earnings reports meeting or topping estimates. But unfortunately, the commentary about the future has been a huge downer. That's one of the things holding investors back now.

I also feel very strongly that Procter & Gamble's strategy is not going to be linked only to Procter & Gamble, ... We will see other Dow-type companies that either have some economic sensitivity or a slowing of revenue growth start to announce restructurings.

I actually think that the markets will be stronger going into the FOMC meeting June 30 and the handoff to the Iraqi council, only because these things are certain now,

I think it's basically a case of no interest on either the buy or the sell side. People have already emotionally prepared for the long weekend, and they don't want to carry much ahead of it.

I think the price of crude is still dominating the minds of investors.

I think you're going to continue to see this until we get through this whole period where there are these expectations that are clearly different than what reality is going to produce next year. Microsoft is only another example.

I think the Fed has at least one further tightening in June and another one in August. Until the American consumer changes his or her outlook on further income growth, the economy is going to remain vibrant and inflation will continue to rise.

I think the bond market has already discounted a favorable report but not a negative report, ... If we see something less than 150,000, bonds will rally and stocks may, too.

I think we'll probably get a brighter picture on retail sales for Christmas, which could (inspire) people a little bit and help the short term.

I think what we have is a recognition by investors that there is some decent value at this price. But whether they have the intestinal fortitude to stay during further adverse times is still unanswered. Today, they seem to have rallied based on the expectation that there is cheapness in some of these stocks.

I think by the first quarter of next year you're going to see a much better profits picture and that's what the market's telling us here.

I think it's wonderful -- the market doesn't want to go down. There are a lot of frustrated buyers out there that are waiting for a much larger correction, but they are being forced to chip away. ... With this market today, you just couldn't get the sellers out in force.

I think some buyers have actually been attracted to the fact that the market has been down so big (this week) even though there may be extensive damage as a result of Rita. Clearly people are concluding things will continue to go on and that the economy is resilient enough to take another blow,

I think we're in a situation where until the storm's damage can really be assessed, which could be weeks, stocks are going to stay under pressure.

I think they're waiting for Cisco, but they're also injecting their own level of certainty about the third quarter as being the turning point for the front end of technology stocks,

It is another piece of good news in that it leaves the Fed in an unfettered position to exercise more discretion in monetary easing. Because the economy has displayed such weakness and inflation has been non-existent with the exception of energy-related prices, the short-term inflation number may be less relevant.

People are joining the camp of easier money for a longer period of time. The Fed should be willing to provide any and all support.

Overall, a great inflation report. This again confirms interest rates should be declining over the next six months and should send the message to the Fed that it need not worry about long-term inflation.

People have been using a rotational strategy -- but eventually you'll have a peaceful coexistence between the two because the 'old economy' stocks will have very good relative earnings that people can attach to,

Some of the governors are going to challenge another 50 basis point (half a percentage point) reduction that many people would like. I think they'll be guarded in their commentary and that may be one of the catalysts for the market to correct.

Some of the negativity is lessening, but we've got to take small steps before we run as far as this type of investor is concerned. The retail investor is not usually the leader of the pack. This is not a group that's going to be waving the green flag in front of the bull and saying 'Let's go!'.

I think people are anxiously awaiting the earnings reports, and what these companies have to say about demand for their business in the second half of the year.

It did not make me feel very comfortable because of the valuations that were starting to be placed on these technology stocks. They were almost discounting utopia until the end of this century, and that really is a scary scenario.

I think it would be difficult for Kerry to prove that the tax cuts were not effective.

I think the story is going to be the same going forward. We're going to see the tech companies reporting well. But the high interest rates we've seen so far have undermined some of the financial stocks and drug stocks.

I'm impressed, ... It's a great Rolaids rally; it showed some relief out there.

The activity and action in the market is very positive and I think the bias of this market is up.

You buy the market when the fundamentals are the weakest. I think the fundamentals are turning and I don't think people realize it yet.

We have been victim of the success of the markets.

With the exception of the Dow, it (was) eerily quiet, waiting for Cisco's results. The Dow is clearly the strongest (today) and it's because there's still a lot of money flowing out of technology.

Today the market anticipated possible problems over the weekend. If nothing happens, we might have a better Monday than we've been having.

Today's market and the market in September reflect skepticism around the sustainability of this incredible trend in demand in the economy and tech products in particular, and also in profitability.

Unfortunately, ... we've got two types of investors right now in this market. We have got this new investor, the new breed that's brash, bold, aggressive, and very short-term oriented, who has not been through a real bear market.

Unfortunately, the market has taken a 'shoot now, analyze later' attitude. These companies are guilty until proven innocent, and they need to come up with confessions or disclosures that prove there's nothing questionable.

Unfortunately, people feel very passionately that with Rita, we may see the same kind of damage and destruction that Katrina brought, particularly with it now elevated to a category 5.

We're at the end of the quarter and people are consolidating a little bit. April could look better if we can see some tech names assert leadership.

This would be a short-term stimulus to personal computer manufacturers, semiconductors and the whole gamut of technology companies.

The question is what are the real earnings.

We do have a little bit of a role reversal. The vulnerability is that (tech) stocks are priced at such levels that any disappointment leaves investors with a quick and sour taste in the mouth. Today's action reflects a little insurance being taken out that if somebody falters, it will bring the others down.

We're just beginning to see justification for the market's rise, with the earnings that have already come in. The next test comes tomorrow, with the banks. People will be looking to see if loan demand in the economy has picked up.

We're looking at a company that's going to grow, I think, at about 14 percent over the next several years with, I might add, a lot of predictability and I think a lot of visibility and a high level of confidence, ... So with Merck at 31 times earnings now and down about 20 percent from its high, I think we're getting into an opportunity where it's a lot better than trying to buy a cyclical that's selling at 27 times earnings and where the visibility is a lot more questionable.

There has been a dearth of negative news, which to the market has to be a sign of good news.

We're nearing an inflection point. I think the market will start to work higher as investors become more comfortable with higher oil prices -- particularly if oil can fall below $50 -- and after the presidential election.

Today we're in the bottom- fishing mode and there are a lot of people who think the tech correction is complete and we've established our lows for this cycle.

We've had a great rally and I think that's going to continue.

Theoretically, the incumbent wants the economic recovery to coincide with the election, but really it's a coincidence that those years tend to be positive. I think it's more that there's a good feeling overall during that year -- everyone is promised the world and no one says anything bad to upset the markets.

The recovery is still tepid. The market is reflecting that slowness.

What really happened today is the retail sales report set the right tone, ... It appears that consumer spending is down.

You had to be in tech to win in this period.

What unnerved the market the most and will continue to keep moving it was Greenspan's comments about the treasury market, ... The comments basically took a lot of financial stocks off guard, all the banks and brokers. That paired with PPI created a bit of a panic.

What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.

Today's sharp selloff shows that there were more bears on vacation in August than we thought, and they've come back nasty.

Be prepared for a continuation of negative commentary by companies as they warn about the second quarter.

Competition's going to get a lot more intense, ... We know that one of the biggest products, Viagra, has been a blockbuster drug and there's more competition coming in next year. There's a new drug going to be introduced next year, and that supposedly has a much more effective impact on patients.

Enron is providing the counterforce right now. It's undermining a number of industries such as utilities, banks, insurance and energy companies.

Fears about the next scandal seem to have eased. It's not very exciting, but it's a period where a lack of news is almost good.

There was a combination of things that really depressed it. One was Hewlett-Packard's shortfall and we had a sympathetic sell-off using the political environment as a backdrop. Ironically, IBM remained the stalwart and it probably gave the notion of stability to the tech sector and we saw some people looking for bargains.

There's skepticism out there. Companies are extremely cautious about giving a decent outlook. They've set a much lower level of expectation for the public and the analysts out there.

There's no conviction over earnings. You're going to get this vacillation back and forth as we're in this bottoming process and it's going to take some time.

There's no conviction over earnings, ... You're going to get this vacillation back and forth as we're in this bottoming process and it's going to take some time.

Things like Dell Computer or Microsoft or Cisco Systems, all have one characteristic: They have enough cash to go through a period like this and come out smelling like roses,

The worst point of the tech cycle is probably upon us now, but the actual results and the commentary on earnings are no surprise. There's a selling exhaustion in regards to tech stocks. People are trying to focus on the road ahead. Looking forward; there is a lot of upside potential.

The rocky road to recovery has some potholes.

These companies are boxed in by poor past forecasts and lack of visibility.

These companies are actually growing, ... The whole group is growing somewhere between 10 and 13 percent relative earnings growth and the price-earnings ratios are about 13 to 14 times. It's one of the few groups out there that are actually selling at their growth rate in terms of price-earnings ratio. And, right now, it's strange -- people don't like the group. It isn't a hot group.

The smartest thing a company can do is take anything that they think might be questionable and disclose it now,

The surprising improvements in the latest employment, manufacturing and durable goods data Wednesday, all leading indicators, put the ingredients in place for the market to maintain an upward bias.

the ten-year Treasury note yield is again moving higher and the price of oil is hitting up against record highs, all of which create obstacles for higher stock prices.

Technology needs to be the leader on the way up, because it was the leader on the way down. Even though the earnings reports are miserable, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. That's what investors are looking at right now.

A demon in the market decided to punish us on the last session of the year.

Any (profit) short-fall in that growth rate at 110 times earnings means there's some risk in these stocks.

The bottom line is clearly the Fed has dashed the hopes of a hiatus after this January increase.