Patrick Fearon Quotations

The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.

We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.

We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.

We did have a modest upward revision in the previous week's claims, but we remain under the psychologically important 400,000 level and that's definitely something that we've been looking for.

There is certainly more going on than just hurricanes and a resulting spike in gasoline prices, ... could weigh on people's attitudes.

People who are unemployed are finding it relatively easier to find jobs. All around, it's a pretty good situation for the labor market.

If the core rate doesn't get out of hand and growth comes in moderate, at some point fairly soon the Fed could decide ... to stop raising rates.

We're probably close to the point where there will be a take-off in investment and wage growth.

It could mean that those people don't show up in the jobless numbers until relatively late, so it's an evolving situations in terms of understanding the impact on the labor market.

It could be this reflects the recent rebound in energy prices that possibly made people a little more cautious again.

Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.

Manufacturing in broad terms is enjoying a very robust period even if certain sub-industries are struggling. It's probably another piece of evidence that the Fed could potentially be raising interest rates after the May 10 monetary policy meeting.

That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.

The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.

Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.

The fact that the final number is higher than the preliminary number shows that the American consumer is not going to be easily intimidated.

The fact that (core inflation) has been on a downward trend for two months is more evidence that Fed policy-makers might stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later.

This shows some strength in the consumer sector at the end of the year.

With energy prices at least roughly flattening out, and with the labor market continuing to strengthen, those are probably two of the main reasons people are starting to get more optimistic.

We've now had three straight quarters of above-average growth, and that's nothing to sneeze at.

Firms are trying very hard to hold onto their existing workers. Other reports are suggesting firms are also hiring new workers. All that translates into a healthy demand for labor.

The good news is that this is much more moderate than we had seen in September and August and it brings the annual inflation rate down to 4.3 percent.

Even though that was an 11,000 increase, you have to say claims remain relatively low and certainly in the range we would expect in a strong labor market.

The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well.

It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number. In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.

It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number, ... In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.

The service sector of the economy is still growing at a good pace and that is consistent with what we were seeing in the employment report for November.

The survey for the final reading would have taken place over the past 10 days or so, when market volatility was particularly high, ... Because of that, the final reading very well could have come in below the preliminary reading. The fact it came in higher shows a certain amount of resilience in the consumer sector.

The narrower trade deficit is a positive piece of news for February. However, with energy prices going up recently, you have to remember that there's a good chance that the trade deficit will widen again over the next (few) months.

Companies are reaping the benefit of enhancements in technology discovery, which has helped them increase their productivity. At the same time, there is a level of competition in the economy that is quite a bit stronger than it has been in the past.

This index is designed so that readings over 50 point to expanding activity in the Midwest factory sector.

There was some slacking off in the fourth quarter, but I didn't think it would affect the whole country.

There was decent strength across the retail sector. These numbers are consistent with an economy growing at a comfortable rate, a pace that would allow the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in a measured fashion.

This level still looks like companies are happy with their current work force, and they are being relatively stingy about keeping their workers -- they don't seem to want to lose too many.

It seems like this is a conspiracy by the gods to make us economists eat our words when we said manufacturing was back on its feet. It's certainly a disappointing number.

It's a good sign that the consumer has some momentum going into the start of the year and that probably reflects the fact that the labor market is continuing to improve, albeit modestly. It's a positive for economic growth this year.

It remains pretty clear that corporations are interested in holding on to their workers as the economy continues to expand.

It looks like the potential disruption has helped to further boost gasoline prices and that could be some additional headwind for the economy.

It looks like warm weather had a big impact so the big jump in January housing starts can be attributed to that. However, the moderating trend in housing really is still in place.

The numbers are still quite healthy, they're still well within the range you would expect in a period of high demand for labor.

It's certainly lower than expectations so in that sense it was a disappointment, but the key thing is that this is still appreciably better as a growth rate than the long-term average, which is only about 3 percent,

It's an encouraging sign, but of course we have a long way to go before you would say that the consumer is very optimistic.

This is consistent with our view that the housing market is likely to continue to moderate in the coming months. But ... home sales are historically pretty strong.

So despite the indicator today, the report for February might not be quite as strong as this is suggesting.

The labor market has been strengthening for a while, but it may be that people are finally starting to become believers in it.

The ISM manufacturing index came in at a decent level in January, just slightly below expectations, but still high enough to suggest that the manufacturing sector is expanding at a steady-as-she-goes pace.

The ISM index shows that the service side of the economy continues to grow well and that's important because that sector makes up the large majority of the economy.

The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market. Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand.

The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market, ... Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand.

Initial claims were significantly better than the expected 300,000, and they were well within the range we would expect in a solid job market.

All kinds of indicators point to a very good report on April employment ... with jobless claims figures coming in where they are and the consumer confidence indicators ... all point to solid job creation.

The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea.

The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth,

The drop in continuing claims could be a sign that the unemployment rate could start drifting downward.