Phebe Marr (born September 21, 1931) is a prominent American historian of modern Iraq with the Middle East Institute.[1][2][3] (wikipedia)
I was cautiously optimistic, but I don't feel that way anymore,
We can all see the ethnic and sectarian identities taking root and growing, with the real potential for dismemberment that this direction implies,
The situation is in decline, and there are not many good options.
Most of Iraq's leaders recognize that if the US were to pull out precipitously, things could get much worse. All the talk about the US getting out, an exit strategy and so forth, has them worried. It's having an impact.
If the U.S. occupies Iraq, it will have the best opportunity in the short term to provide both law and order, prevent retribution and begin the processes by which Iraqis inside and outside can refashion their political system and move toward democratic reforms.
All of this is creating great, great decentralization and a failure to provide services. Until they get a real central government, they're not going to provide any effective central authority. This is going to require some time, a long time.
