This was a big reminder of how tight the system is. And what Katrina did is make the system even tighter going forward.
OPEC is an anachronism today. This is not a market where suppliers have to manage any spare capacity. They cannot manage the short-term risk, which is going to be on the upside. What we're seeing here is a demand shock, but everybody is looking to OPEC as if it were a supply shock.
We have lost a lot of supplies at a time when we were very vulnerable. How high prices go will depend on how quickly refiners can get back on.
Gold prices don't go up just because jewelers need more gold, they go up because gold is an investment. The same has happened to oil.
Restarting a refinery is a very delicate operation. These things can blow up. They are complicated, old and cranky.
Ivan had a long, lingering effect because of the damage it caused and because it hit the market with a perception - and a reality - of a lack of supplies. In that sense, it heightened the fear of hurricanes this year.
The crunch is on refineries. The global market right now is driven by the product market in the United States, which is why the situation is pretty bad.
We have a supply shock. How high prices go will depend on how quickly refiners can get back on.
