Steven Wood Quotations

The positive influence of tax rebate checks and lower energy prices is being overwhelmed by the adverse impact of highly noticeable layoff announcements and the turmoil in the stock market,

Unseasonably mild weather in January, coming after unseasonably severe weather in December, generated a huge increase in housing starts. Moreover, February's weather is likely to generate a big decline in housing activity next month.

Unless there is a quick rebound in sales, this suggests further weakness in production and declines in inventories over the months ahead.

With the next FOMC meeting only another week away, it is unlikely any of them will tip their hands regarding monetary policy,

This will offer some partial restraint to consumer spending.

There is clear and strong evidence that the factory sector is expanding solidly,

Layoffs continue to rise and job creation continues to slow,

Less refinancing activity should dampen consumer spending -- although that has not yet occurred.

Leading indicators of job creation were generally favorable.

Solid productivity gains are helping to restrain inflationary pressures. However, because the recent improvements are due to a dramatic reduction in work hours, they reflect the deep trouble the economy is in.

Momentum in the leading indicators has slowed over the past year, suggesting an impending slowdown in economic growth.

Retail spending was much stronger than anticipated. Although some of these gains were due to post-hurricane spending, it appears that consumers are not yet ready to throw in the towel.

Retail sales have slowed over the last six months in response to the slower pace of job creation, higher rates, and increased volatility in the stock market. Indeed, in the past two years there has been tight relationship between the Nasdaq and retail spending, suggesting further spending weakness in coming months.

Only lower interest rates are providing any support at the moment, ... The outlook is still worrisome.

New claims during the survey week are broadly similar to where they have been for the last two months, when payrolls fell, ... Continuing claims have been ratcheting steadily higher. Labor market weakness remains.

New and continuing claims are at levels that historically have been associated with payroll employment gains of around 225,000. Labor markets are gradually improving.

Because of the dramatic shift in job advertising market share from newspapers to the Internet, the help-wanted index has lost much of its luster.

Because the U.S. economy has slowed more sharply than the international economy, imports have been impacted more than exports, thereby narrowing the trade deficit.

Because pricing power has disappeared, profit margins will remain under significant pressure.

Given (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's) concerns regarding consumer attitudes this development has to be seen as worrisome.

Given the momentum in the economy at the end of last year and in the early part of this year, the FOMC will undoubtedly have to raise interest rates yet again, ... Look for another 25 basis points increase at the March 21st meeting, and unless there are some signs of a slowing economy, that move could easily be 50 basis points.

The pace of layoffs is rising again, while new hiring has stopped. These trends will likely be extended because of the economic dislocations associated with this week's tragic events.

The pace of layoffs is rising again, while new hiring has stopped, ... These trends will likely be extended because of the economic dislocations associated with this week's tragic events.

Huge swings in energy and motor vehicle prices have masked a sharp retreat in core producer inflation over the past 6 months.

It confirms that the (Fed) was correct in pausing their tightening cycle at last week's meeting.

Labor markets are very strong and payroll employment should rise by 200,000 or more in February. The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to raise interest rates.

Labor markets are deteriorating rapidly. Layoffs remain at a fast pace, while hiring has all but stopped. As economic activity continues to unravel, there are few prospects for a near-term turnaround. The national unemployment rate, now at 4.9 percent, should breach 6 percent before the economy begins to recover.

Labor markets are deteriorating quickly in the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11. The economy was quite weak before the attacks, which have accelerated the pace of layoffs. As layoffs spiral higher, hiring activity has stopped, giving a strong upward push to joblessness.

It is our family's prayer that both of these gentlemen will become valuable members of this society.Only time will tell with Cam Hall, but we're hopeful that what he says is real.

Our feeling is that markets are not going to rebound magically to a 100-machine market. So you have to learn to work in a very competitive, smaller market.

Payroll employment for October will plunge sharply and unemployment will continue to rise, likely breaching 6 percent by early next year,

Some of the December strength and January weakness appears to be related to Y2K precautions; the (Federal Open Market Committee) will need a lot more evidence of a slowdown in consumer spending than this to convince them that further tightening is not warranted,

I wish I wasn't here. But the loss of Stephanie, Tony and Zoe is a loss that won't go away. Many people have asked me about my response to this event. They say 'you must hate these people,' but we don't.

It doesn't necessarily point to another increase in rates for the Fed.

Manufacturing is still mired in a deep recession. Although vehicle production has stepped up to try to maintain a low-cost financing induced sales explosion, the rest of the industrial sector is hurting badly.

Manufacturing is still mired in a deep recession, although the rate of decline may be slowing. The rapid adjustment in reducing inventories will eventually slow and ultimately reverse, giving the factory sector a lift.

Manufacturing is mired in a deep, prolonged recession.

Most measures of the labor market indicate that the degree of slack is slowly disappearing.

Wholesalers had been struggling with bulging inventories through the winter and spring, ... However, plunging sales had largely thwarted their efforts. July's improvement is a welcome respite in this struggle.

While the auto sector appears to have corrected its inventory overhang, other sectors have not been nearly as successful, particularly high tech, ... As business sales slow, it will be even more difficult to bring inventories into line.

While a portion of this strength is due to unseasonably mild winter weather, it is obvious that higher interest rates are, so far, having little dampening impact on construction.

Weakness in the composite index suggests that economic growth will slow over the next three to six months.

We still expect economic activity to slow over the next several quarters as consumer spending slows further and housing declines more because of higher interest rates and energy costs. The absence of inflation will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.

We are looking for a very dismal report,

Volumes are still strong enough to generate a few new factory jobs amid robust productivity gains. Moreover, capital spending appears to be on track for another solid contribution to third quarter GDP.

This stronger consumer sentiment may yet translate into solid core consumer spending for the holiday season.

The data are heavily distorted by a large military contract and the surge in vehicle sales. Once these have dissipated, orders and shipments will sag again.

The demand for new housing surged, likely because rising mortgage rates motivated some potential homebuyers to accelerate their buying decisions.

While some of the decline was related to the effects of Hurricane Floyd, the fact that all four regions fell suggests that higher mortgage rates are also having a constraining effect.

This relative stability has been remarkable given the ebbs and flows in job creation, the equity markets, the conflict in Iraq, the election campaign, interest rates and gasoline prices.

There is a clear improving trend in orders which provides support for the recovering manufacturing sector, ... Although some of the inventory building that occurred was likely Y2K related and will be reversed in the new year, the acceleration of both shipments and backlogs suggests that the manufacturing recovery has substantial staying power.

With a longer-term view, layoffs have accelerated, job creation has slowed, and joblessness has increased.

While good gains in productivity are economically favorable, it is not a good situation when this occurs because labor input is declining more rapidly than output.

This will help boost overall economic growth to above 4 percent; our current (third-quarter) estimate is 4.5.

There are a few tentative hints -- higher new orders, a drop in the inventory-to-sales ratio -- that the period of maximum weakness has likely passed. Although further declines in output are anticipated, the rate of decline should gradually diminish.

With employment gains non-existent, income growth has slowed. As households also become more judicious in taking on more debt, consumer spending will remain soft.

With the airlines reducing schedules, we've already seen that cascade back on airline manufacturers like Boeing. And that has cascading effects on hundreds, if not thousands, of vendors who supply parts and components to Boeing.

With still strong domestic demand and improving international demand, the factory sector is continuing to recover from the sluggishness that resulted from the Asian economic crisis.

While this will not force the Fed's hand at this week's meeting, an August tightening remains a real possibility.

While these data will be welcome by the (Fed), two key questions remain. Will the second quarter spending slow down extend through the rest of the year? Economic fundamentals suggest they will. And will the spending slowdown be sufficient to relieve pressure on labor markets and inflation? At this point, that is still an open question.

While these data will be welcome by the (Fed), two key questions remain, ... Will the second quarter spending slow down extend through the rest of the year? Economic fundamentals suggest they will. And will the spending slowdown be sufficient to relieve pressure on labor markets and inflation? At this point, that is still an open question.

While the housing sector is slowing, almost all of its weakness will be offset by the improving factory sector, ... More interest rate hikes will be necessary to slow the economy sufficiently to alleviate the Fed's fears of building inflationary pressures.

Weakness was widespread, extending the period of pronounced weakness.

The recent pace of growth in the leaders suggests that economic growth should slow from its 3.6 percent over the four quarters through the third quarter of 2005.

The recent movements in the index suggest only moderate economic growth over the next 6 to 9 months.

This was the first time that the January budget has been in deficit since 1992.

What they did imply was that future Fed actions will become even more data dependent, Further tightening cannot be ruled out.

With last week's Fed tightening, mortgage rates have continued to rise, so that further declines in housing activity are likely over the balance of the year. Nevertheless, robust labor markets and rising incomes have helped sustain housing at a relatively high level.

Consumers still remain optimistic about the future despite having some concerns about the present. This is very typical of a business cycle turning point,

Even as the pace of layoffs has ebbed, no new hiring is taking place, so continuing claims will rise even further and surpass their peak in the last recession. Labor market deterioration is continuing with no end in sight.

The trade figures are distorted by the effects of foreign re-insurance on the World Trade Center. Nevertheless, international trade is contracting.

The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks seem to have had little impact on the factory sector so far. However, many industries have already reported further production cuts as demand has waned. A more substantial contraction is expected next month.

The sharp slowing in domestic demand has dramatically reduced imports. Weakening economic activity in our major trading partners has significantly reduced the foreign demand for American-made products.

These data suggest that the manufacturing sector continues to bleed. Lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus and declining energy costs have not yet made any difference to this part of the economy.

These data suggest that a manufacturing turnaround has not yet arrived.

These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but that a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth.

These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth,

These data provide some encouraging news for the factory sector, as unwanted inventories are being worked off and shipments have bounced.

These data provide additional evidence that a soft-landing scenario is beginning to unfold, much to the (Federal Open Market Committee's) delight.

These data indicate that wholesale deliveries to retailers are falling quickly, responding to the slowing pace of retail sales. However, deliveries from manufacturers and imports have not slowed as sharply. Unless retail sales revive, wholesalers will continue to cut their orders from manufacturers and imports, maintaining the downward pressure on the factory sector.

These data indicate that the manufacturing sectors of the economy are still reeling from slowing demand and bloated inventories. Further declines in output are likely.

These data indicate that the economy is slowing quickly and may now actually be in recession.

These data indicate that the deterioration in the labor market has not been halted. Therefore, the slowing in the broad economy has likely not been halted either.

These data continue to show that the housing market remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates. This resiliency will make it more difficult for the (Federal Open Market Committee) to slow the economy,

These data continue to confirm that the manufacturing sector is in recession.

These data, combined with everything else that has been reported, suggest that Q1 GDP should rise comfortably above 1.0 percent,

These data clearly show consumer attitudes at recessionary levels,

These data are consistent with still-strong domestic and improving international economic activity.

These data are consistent with slower but still solid economic activity.

These data are consistent with slightly better pricing power for both importers and exporters, which reflects the improvement in international economic activity. However, the gains are sufficiently restrained as to not cause any concerns about broader based measures of inflation.

These data are broadly consistent with payroll employment gains in the 200,000 to 250,000 (monthly) range.

These data add to the growing evidence that economic activity has slowed and that any re-acceleration is likely to be short-lived.

The slowdown in manufacturing activity will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve, where any sign of economic slowing will be cheered.

The strong historical relationship between the level of the help-wanted index and the year-on-year growth of payroll employment has broken down completely.

The spring slowdown in factory activity, due largely to an inventory adjustment cycle, is now history,

The signals in the manufacturing sector have become quite mixed. The diffusion indices suggest a slowing pace of growth while the factory and durable goods reports indicate an acceleration. In the past, when this type of divergence has occurred, the diffusion indices have usually been the better indicator.

The terrorist attacks are going to make a bad situation even worse.

Productivity has slowed during the past year because output has fallen more quickly than employment and hours have been trimmed.

The narrowing of the budget shortfall in October is largely due to timing factors. Nevertheless, there is no apparent deterioration caused by the federal relief efforts following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,

After adjusting for the storm effects, both initial and continuing claims appear to be near their pre-hurricane levels, indicating that labor markets remain strong despite the weak October payroll employment report.