Timothy Ghriskey Quotations

We're into a bit of the summer doldrums. There have been a lot of positive earnings surprises, but the anticipation of that has lifted markets for months, with little proof that the economy is improving enough to justify those earnings. So the mood is more upbeat, but that hasn't translated to higher stock prices.

We're seeing a pullback really just from yesterday.

We're seeing a little selling today, but I think it's important to remember that we just hit an 18-month high on the Dow, and so we're going to see a little pullback short-term.

What we'll be focused on in early January will be more reports on how the holiday season went for retailers.

We've seen a very volatile stock market since February. Different styles and sectors, like technology or financials, coming in and out of favor with no clear direction. There's nothing really wrong with techs. They are certainly somewhat highly valued by any historic measure, but probably not as highly valued as they were in February. We think, actually, come the fall, we could see a big tech rally, and that would probably be related to the fact that the IPO calendars are really building at the big underwriting firms, the big broker dealers.

The CPI number this morning sparked a rally in both stock and bond markets. But beyond the initial reaction, I think we're going to remain stuck in this range until other issues get resolved.

The CPI number this morning sparked a rally in both stock and bond markets, ... But beyond the initial reaction, I think we're going to remain stuck in this range until other issues get resolved.

We're seeing volume but no volatility in prices. And I think that just shows you that a lot of people are away and people are not making major moves. But next week, when everyone comes back from the Labor Day weekend it tends to be a big week and they really put the foot to accelerator and go, go, go.

We're seeing the same thing that we saw in October during the last earnings period, where investors used mostly good news as a reason to take profits.

Light sweet crude is over $45 a barrel now, and that's a big drag on various parts of the economy. I think at some point, the price of oil falls and that sets off a rally in the market.

Maybe there aren't a lot of sellers left and buyers are starting to put money into the market,

Obviously very leveraged to the financial markets, ... When stocks are going up, this stock should do better than the market. When stocks go down, it should do worse than the market. So, there is risk here. But, it's the most diversified of the major broker dealers.

If (these warnings don't) wake up people that we're in preannouncement season and the preannouncements are going to be bad, I don't know what will,

If anything that this year has proved to investor or should have proved to investors is don't bet on just one sector of the market even if it is technology with that great growth,

The pall of interest rates continues to hang over the market.

I think it's a marriage made in heaven, ... First of all, it gives Allied leadership for the future. Honeywell brings with it some strong management and that was a concern to AlliedSignal shareholders. There are cost-cutting and synergy opportunities. This is going to be a major force going forward.

I think it's important for investors to be cautious there -- probably take some of that money off and search for new values in the market, ... Spread out your investments, because if you stay in what has been hot, invariably there will be a correction.

I thought Dell had good numbers, and it likely shows that they have taken share in a lot of key areas. While that's good for Dell, I don't think it takes the sting out of HP's news. I don't think it has broad implications for the rest of tech.

I think the August Fed meeting is a big overhang. And certainly the direction from that meeting will influence where the market goes. We could get into a bit of a summer doldrums here with August looming, from vacation time and all of that,

I think we can see the market continue to move up through the summer, but it's going to depend on the earnings and the economic news. We should begin to see some evidence of an economic pick-up in the July data, which will start to come out early August. Second-quarter earnings look to be favorable, judging by the estimates and the fact that there have been less negative pre-announcements than in recent quarters.

I think we've seen a slight relief rally, but I don't see what there is out there that's going to lift us beyond that.

I think we've had a pretty significant correction in the stock market since the highs in early March, and we've reached a level that seems to be bringing in buyers.

I think any time OPEC meets it has an impact, although OPEC doesn't have the same effect on the stock market it once did.

I think today is a day of portfolio window dressing, with asset managers making sure they don't have cash sitting around for the end of the year, which tends to be favorable for stocks.

I think there's a lot of fear about the earnings, particularly the tech earnings.

Jeff wants to be more upfront with investors.

I think early January should live up to its reputation as a pretty good time of year for stocks.

Overall, the issue for the market right now is oil. Today it seems to be about the events in Nigeria, but with oil it's been just one issue after another lately.

Markets don't go straight up, nor should they. What we're seeing today is very necessary. You want to see a series of small ups and smaller downs, with new investors coming back in and buying the dips. This period of selling is nothing more sinister than that.

It doesn't seem like corporations want to boost their earnings projections as much as the market would like.

I think this is a technical bear market rally that we could get today (Wednesday) on oversold conditions after we went through some technical levels on the major indexes yesterday. So we can expect the market to lift up some,

We do have the wind of the Fed at our back. At some point this downturn we're in levels out.

We really think we're seeing a bottoming in the market. We think the issues really have been dealt with that caused the real collapse of the market. We think we're in a bottoming process that can last a while -- we think the last leg of it is resolution of the Iraq conflict.

We really think we're seeing a bottoming in the market, ... We think the issues really have been dealt with that caused the real collapse of the market. We think we're in a bottoming process that can last a while -- we think the last leg of it is resolution of the Iraq conflict.

Volume is very light, and the news flow is generally light as well. After Labor Day, I think we're going to see volume pick up, and my gut says we're going to see higher stock prices.

The question is when does the economy recover and to what extent does it recover?

The prospect of nearing the September lows is propping up the market. Certainly the news was bad last night, but the market action over the last several days has been more positive.

We want to be in cheaper tech stocks, and companies like IBM that haven't lowered guidance,

We saw crude reverse from the morning, and the market rises. The price of crude oil has such an impact across the economy, and you see that reflected in the market.

We think we've seen the height of the litigation concerns here. We think we're on a down track here,

We think they're out there probably trying to sell this business, ... That's going to magnetize some assets and help this company.

We had a correction, partly because the market had this huge run and everyone was looking for a correction, and partly in response to the weak February payrolls number. We had a bounce off that correction Monday and Tuesday, but concerns remain.

Yet again we're seeing relative strength in the technology sector and we've really seen this for about a week. Big Tech is leading the market and that's a good sign for that sector.

Expectations were so high for Intel that they couldn't help but disappoint,

But the language in the Fed comments and in Greenspan's speeches of late has been pointing to rate hikes becoming more aggressive, ... The word 'measured' is going to be dropped soon, maybe at this meeting, maybe at the next.

We've had some very good earnings. Certainly the sell-off we've had in the last week or so has provided an opportunity for buyers to come back into the market.

We've had some not-great earnings news, such as GM. But to us, the biggest issue remains oil. Crude up at these levels is a concern for the consumer and for corporations on a global level.

This seems to be a period where the market is very unsettled. There's really no leadership and that's because there's a lot of uncertainty, not only about the Fed, but in terms of where the economy is going and how that will affect corporations.

What our economist thinks at this point is that we have probably seen the last of interest rate hikes by the Fed, which could be a positive thing for the transportation sector,

We saw some good numbers come out of GE and UTX, which bodes well for the economy, but I think we're still in this correction.

There have been few negative pre-announcements and a number of positive ones. Third-quarter earnings should be strong and that should continue to support the stock market. But there will always be pullbacks and volatility. There's always the potential for people to sell the news and you may see that in the short term.

There have been few negative pre-announcements and a number of positive ones, ... Third-quarter earnings should be strong and that should continue to support the stock market. But there will always be pullbacks and volatility. There's always the potential for people to sell the news and you may see that in the short term.

CPI is certainly the big economic report of next week. The Fed's beige book and some of the manufacturing numbers will be looked at as well.

Earnings have been coming in by-and-large at better-than-expected levels. But a lot of that has been priced in, and so you're seeing some selling on the news. But the profit-taking is short-term. Longer term, we should continue to see strong economic reports that support the rally, and we should start to see analysts' estimates increase for the fourth quarter.

Even if GDP is strong tomorrow, even better than the 6.0 consensus, you may not see a big stock reaction, ... As you saw yesterday, we're in a period where the economy should continue to support the stock gains going forward.

The waters remain very muddy in terms of the economy. Friday's payrolls report made the case that the economy still has some life to it, but it's not clear yet whether the slowdown in March was temporary.

The waters remain very muddy in terms of the economy, ... Friday's payrolls report made the case that the economy still has some life to it, but it's not clear yet whether the slowdown in March was temporary.

These earnings really give analysts confidence that this company and the industry and the metal are well on the road to recovery and the outlook remains strong.

The talk is that the Fed is going to be getting more aggressive soon, and may start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. It's not going to happen this time, because (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan knows he needs to prepare the market for this in advance.

The most important read this week is the first look at GDP growth in the second quarter, ... A number of companies, including GE recently, have talked about April and May being tough, but conditions picking up in June, particularly the second half, and the GDP number will likely reflect that.

So the message here, spread your investments around, ... If you've gotten hurt this year in technology, learn from that and diversify your investments.

Oil is likely to stay in the $40's and that is likely to result in a flat stock market for the time being, ... Unless crude can break out of that range, I think we're likely to see sideways trading.

Oil is certainly dominating the market right now. Yesterday, crude moved above $60 but then pulled back by the close. Today you didn't see that.

Oil continues to be a big influence on the market, and the Fed is as well. As inflation goes, so goes the Fed.

The brokerage earnings are by far the toughest to predict, because so much depends on how their internal investment performance was.

That part of their business was very strong in the previously reported quarter, and that's why the stock is rebounding,

You're seeing a little relief buying after the pressure of the last three days. There was a lot of selling on the speculation about Rita, but now that it's getting closer to where it's expected to hit land, there's a backing off.

This is a pulp and paper stock, which is very leveraged to economic improvement, ... That's certainly a stock we like a lot.

A lot of people are calling for a correction since we've had a pretty uninterrupted run since mid-November, and that would actually be healthy for the market, ... But when you hear everyone forecasting a big correction, it often doesn't happen.

Almost the whole group now is in play,

They are saying the economy is going to slow and that there's no inflation but that we still need to raise rates. Investment professionals worry that the Fed will go too far and grind the economy into a recession.

There was strong economic data this morning, which sent bond yields higher.

There's been this dramatic rise in interest rates recently, and it's sent a shiver through the market.

There is still strong underlying demand for financial securities. That, combined with the strength of the economy could carry us to year-end.

It seems to us that this rally is primarily short-covering, rather than something fundamental. The sense is that tech doesn't have much room to go lower.

It was a very reluctant rally but it shows how much the market can feed on itself.

Ford Motor warned Friday and that type of news is pressuring stocks,

It's the type of week where we're going to see slow volume and basically a half day Wednesday and a dead Friday.

Everyone is expecting a 25-basis point rise. The mantra has been measured and we expect it to continue to be measured.

Everyone knows growth slowed in the third quarter, and so for a company like GM to miss is not surprising, considering that it's so reflective of the economy and impacted by oil prices.

The benign inflation data and the belief that the Fed may be closer to the end than had previously been thought has helped the market this week.

It obviously still dominates the software space, and we think it's going to be a good Christmas in the PC sector, both for the consumer and for business,

Oil was down a lot on the day and that certainly helped the market to support recent gains. There's also money moving from bonds to stocks here, with bonds retreating after the August run.

Oil up two percent and Wal-Mart lowering expectations set a negative tone pretty much from the beginning of the day.

Oil still remains the big uncertainty out there for the market. I think the attack in Saudi Arabia and worries about Friday's OPEC meeting are unsettling financial markets.

Oil still remains the big uncertainty out there for the market, ... I think the attack in Saudi Arabia and worries about Friday's OPEC meeting are unsettling financial markets.

Is this a true rally, or a false start? ... Nobody's going to wave a green flag when there's a bottom.

The two issues regarding rates that have been in front of the markets for weeks have been 'when will rates rise, and by how much?,'

This is a very cyclical business. If an acquirer takes on debt to do this, there is high risk in that. They could be taking on a lot of debt and restructuring costs just at the wrong time.

It's not causing a sell-off like it has in the past, but it does make it unlikely the market can move a lot higher.

The issues that have captured investors' attention over the last few weeks have cooled down, but they're still there. We don't think the market is in a dire situation, but we don't think we're in anything other than a trading range.

the investment banks and economists may come out and lower second-half gross domestic product growth forecasts.

The fear that's out there is forward looking, with people worrying about inflation and what the Federal Reserve might do in the months ahead. So the numbers next week won't help, although we do get a lot of earnings, which is good.

I like the rally today and the volume is good, but we still have a lot of economic reports to get through the rest of the week that could either undermine it or strengthen it.

If the retail investor has picked up, as you've seen in January, that's a positive, in that you want consumers to be saving more and investing. But you never want to be the last one in and too often that's the case.

If you look at today, you've got to say yesterday was a sucker's rally.

I just think there's nothing that's come out over the last couple of days that counters the primary issues (that) the market has been punished for over the last couple of months, which is loss of investor confidence over corporate malfeasance, accounting and terrorism,

I'd say the biggest concern right now is certainly oil. The gas pump is squeezing the consumer and the consumer is what has kept the economy going.

Gorman coming over changes the whole landscape. It's a fresh slate.

You could see a bit of a correction in early January on the stocks that have done really well in this end-of-2004 rally. Otherwise, you might see a quiet period.