Tony Crescenzi Quotations

The refunding results show that the market's assessment of underlying (economic) fundamentals is that they are still bearish. Therefore, the market's overall downward trend is intact.

There is a revival in global growth now underway that is lifting the U.S. manufacturing sector and hence, commodity prices and wages.

The CPI is correct in measuring consumer prices, ... But it's not correct in measuring the cost of living.

The productivity advance will also serve as a powerful backstop for the U.S. dollar, as it creates an environment that is good for the rates of return on U.S. assets, especially compared to other countries where both productivity growth and economic growth are lower than in the U.S.,

There are many causes of both today's weakness and of the bond market's weakening in general,

Should the job market continue to strengthen, the bond market might become a far less placid place than it has been lately.

Since $300 billion in yen trade each day in the markets, the G-7 is really no match for the market's firepower, ... In the end, fundamentals will dictate trading.

Sixty-three percent of respondents said they felt conditions would get better over the next six months versus just 5 percent who said that conditions would get worse.

Now the game has changed and there's a greater risk of capital loss. Banks won't take as many chances now.

Policy makers want to make sure in the language of their statement that whatever they do, it's meant as insurance -- they don't want to create alarm about the state of the economy, but they also don't want to create alarm in the bond market about the end of accommodative policy,

I believe the current decline in stocks could have a significant influence on the economy -- and hence, bonds -- if the stock decline is sustained.

Buffett has made timely purchases of STRIPS in the past, so people pay attention

Because of the strong global economy, there is a safety net surrounding the U.S. economy -- so if it begins to slow, it won't slow much because there is tremendous support.

If it really is going on now, we'll hear more, rather than less, about it later.

He's clearly knowledgeable about issues that affect Wall Street and he should be able to navigate Capitol Hill.

His testimony is apt to be consistent with the notion that the Fed is still in a tightening mode and inflation is rearing its head,

Greenspan usually refrains from saying anything market moving ahead of speeches before Congress,

Greenspan's speech puts an exclamation point on the market's notion that the Fed will eventually have to cut rates in response to the rapid deceleration in the economy,

Greenspan's confidence in the predictive value of gold (as an inflation indicator) might be high enough that, when combined with other critical predictors . . . could push Greenspan to either hawkish words or action,

Greenspan opened the door to 50-basis-point rate hikes,

I would venture to forecast that if the upcoming payroll report were to post a decline in the vicinity of 200,000 or so, the Fed might lower interest rates as early as this Friday.

Rita is a major factor, as it is expected to keep the dominant negative in place: high energy prices and their impact on both consumer spending and the animal spirits of U.S. businesses.

Parry's comments hint that the Fed still views the neutral level of the federal-funds rate to be approximately two percentage points above the inflation rate,

Like the Great Tulip Mania in Holland in the 1600's and the dot.com mania of early 2000, markets have repeatedly disconnected from reality,

It is conceivable, for example, that the current weakness in stock prices may already reflect the weak earnings news that will be released over the next several weeks and the stock market might unwind some of its excess pessimism,

Where was the Treasury when the rest of America was refinancing its debt?

With the Fed's statement, Chairman Alan Greenspan's famed gradualism is surfacing again, as the chairman appears to be signaling a slow pace of interest rate hikes in the future,

Treasury yields look headed to 5 percent by the May 10 (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting and possibly 5.25 percent by the June 29th.

The pending home sales data feed right into the hands of those who expect the Fed to end its interest-rate hikes.

The pattern of the equity market lately is that it doesn't retain its bid for long. Bonds started to strengthen on a bet that stocks would weaken. It's rare that stocks hold a bid these days.

The question is -- and this is why the market hasn't reacted too negatively to the durable goods report -- is whether businesses ... will continue to spend given the risks to consumer spending posed by high energy prices.

When there is a weak auction, it sometimes means investors will step aside and wait for deals in the secondary market,

We've come a long way, ... There's almost no expectations of further rate hikes for the rest of the year.

While the results of the September jobs report are impressive and seem to suggest that the underlying strength in labor demand has been unaffected by recent events, the strength could well reflect the lagged effects of past strength in the economy and the data therefore provide much less guidance about the future than might seem obvious.

With increasing vigor, the lagged effects of the Fed's interest rate cuts should begin to appear before the end of the summer,

Today's speech...is notable more for Greenspan's change in delivery than change in material,

Corporate bond investors seem relatively optimistic compared to a few months ago.

Even Clint Eastwood could not have written a better script that would pit the bulls and the bears against each other over the meaning of today's payroll report, ... The winner, however, may not be known for a while longer since the data is sufficiently murky.

There's some evidence that they may be shifting away from dollar reserves to other assets to try to diversify their reserves.

The Treasury tends to follow through with changes in new issuance when it forewarns of possible changes,

The Treasury market has come to grips with the notion that stocks have recovered,

The rhetoric over the fiscal stimulus package heated up this weekend, reducing the likelihood of passage, ... In what may become a famous remark, President Bush said that Congress would 'raise taxes over my dead body.'

The selling is modest and the market still has resilience to it.

The signals coming from the bond market are significant and suggest that the anxieties in the markets are likely to dissipate,

The supply of bonds won't have a large bearing on the yield levels or the structure of the yield curve, ... The influence on interest rates will come more fundamental factors such as inflation expectations, competition for capital and monetary policy.

A quarter point move is already built in to the market. It wouldn't have any impact.

The buck has yet to stop at Summers as too many officials have abandoned the former 'one-voice' policy and thrown in their harmful two-cents, ... Summers must assert a 'one-voice' policy to stop the dollar from falling further.

They are continuing to reinforce the point that regardless, with the stock markets down, they are going to continue to raise rates,

This just is a reflection of the current environment with oil prices rising, security concerns. All of these factors are pushing players to buy bonds over stocks.

There seem to be all the elements of a good auction -- the bid-to-cover ratio was solid, the yield was as expected and yields are not rising.

It's a little surprising because I thought there'd be a little more concern over weakness in dollar/yen.

It suggests the trend has changed, because each week's estimate is based on the trends. This is clearly an important change, when taken with other news, particularly monthly payroll statistics. It suggests more good news is on the way.

It looks like he has done it again, just when the market thought he had made potential policy error.

The news coverage on today's jobs data will likely be immense, and this will in a sense pummel the consumer with bad news.

The new rumor now since the meeting, since they did not act, is that the Fed could conduct an inter-meeting rate change, ... This is something they haven't done since April 1994, but people feel if the payroll report is strong and it's accompanied by a high wage gain, the Fed might move as early as tomorrow.

The bond market remains quite bearish. The economic news did not change anyone's mind about the Fed raising rates,

The bidding was quite aggressive. TIPS are well in demand these days.

The Bank of Japan's feeble 10 basis-point rate cut to 0.15 percent shows the head-in-sand attitude that has led to weak money supply growth and a slow economy.

It's an excuse to consolidate recent losses, although it seems highly implausible that federal officials would want to signal their plans, through any channel.

The 'new era' economy, wherein strong growth and low inflation have coincided remarkably for several years, appears to be under duress in ways not seen in some time,

The minutes appear to show a smaller degree of concern about inflation risks than some may have feared,

The Fed is hanging onto its long-term view. Some will say this is just excessive optimism.

The Fed has put the market's attention more intensely on the jobs situation again.

The Fed has drawn a line in the sand, so there won't be a significant rally from here.

The Fed has been very, very clear, and that's going to keep the market under pressure.

The Fed's beige book contains a little something for both the bull and bear camps but has a marginally negative tone to it,

The Fed certainly recognizes the importance that the markets are placing on the housing market and could well use it as a means of sending strong signals.

In light of today's $500 billion wealth loss in the stock market, it is rational to begin thinking about an endgame to the Fed's rate hike phase, ... At the very least, recent developments tell us that the Fed's actions have finally reached a critical breaking point that limits the scope for significant rate hikes going forward.

If oil prices fall, it will help to stimulate economic activity -- the profit outlook will be better and also lower oil would bring down costs, making stocks the better asset class.

In the context of the recent markdown in prices, one could argue that the results in no way indicate that the recent bond market sell-off is over.

In the aftermath of a string of bad inflation news, the Fed now appears to have ample ammunition to justify their strategy shift.

If you want to asses the market's true feeling about underlying (economic) fundamentals, you have to look at the 10-year and under.

These are important concerns for the bond market, ... We know that the Federal Reserve watches these things.

The horrid results of today's 30-year auction clearly show that investors have encountered sticker shock,

The distinction (of the phone survey) is important, ... Because it suggests that the ABC/ Money poll is more current and may have captured more of the impact of the recent stock market decline than did the Conference Board's.

The market's view about aggressive tightening has fallen just a touch because of the Dow drop,

The market is very confident in Greenspan. He has built up tremendous good will.

The market is of the mind-set that the economy might be poised to rebound, and that will take precedence above all else.