I don't think these high energy prices are going away any time soon. Consumers are pulling back.
I can't imagine that these energy prices aren't elevated through the winter. We anticipate even higher prices. Companies don't want to hire ahead of uncertainty.
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
Higher prices are back, which bodes ill for those expecting a quick end to Fed rate hikes. It looks like inflation is going onward and upward in the first quarter.
Up until now, we haven't seen any backlash to record prices at the pump from consumers, but now the story is changing,
The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.
The economy is motoring along and we are indeed creating more than a decent amount of jobs. But there are a number of hurdles that lie in our path of prosperity ? record energy prices and the economic consequences of Hurricane Katrina.