Rick Sherlund Estimates Quotations

Estimating results has been like catching a falling knife this year and we do not believe Street estimates yet capture the magnitude of capital spending constraints going into 2002, particularly considering anecdotal data coming out of Europe.

Oracle has an August quarter, so we are more compelled to cut estimates now. Siebel is September, so we could wait, but the numbers just look too optimistic. Given cost reductions, the EPS cut for Oracle is small, but the growth rates for Siebel are much faster, so EPS reductions more significant.

Oracle has an August quarter, so we are more compelled to cut estimates now, ... Siebel is September, so we could wait, but the numbers just look too optimistic. Given cost reductions, the EPS cut for Oracle is small, but the growth rates for Siebel are much faster, so EPS reductions more significant.

The stock may not yet be entirely out of the woods if the December quarter results do not show some further re-acceleration in corporate PC demand, at which point there may be a better basis for revising estimates further,

We trimmed estimates last week to reflect even more sluggish PC demand, the potential for slower server growth and slower on-line advertising for MSN,

The company remains comfortable with our revenue and EPS estimates of $5.65 billion and 41 cents for the September quarter.

Microsoft's management has not changed its posture on the quarter, but we believe recent data suggests that Street estimates may need to come down,