Having said this, the rise in U.S. rates overnight does suggest there is scope for another test below $1.20 in the euro today, but we would look to square shorts at $1.1950.
Commodity prices are a risk to U.S. inflation and I don't think the market is pricing enough scope for that. If the Fed rate gets to 5.25 percent, then cash yields have to be at 5 percent plus.