Steven Wood Continue Quotations

Layoffs continue to rise and job creation continues to slow,

Labor markets are very strong and payroll employment should rise by 200,000 or more in February. The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to raise interest rates.

Payroll employment for October will plunge sharply and unemployment will continue to rise, likely breaching 6 percent by early next year,

These data indicate that wholesale deliveries to retailers are falling quickly, responding to the slowing pace of retail sales. However, deliveries from manufacturers and imports have not slowed as sharply. Unless retail sales revive, wholesalers will continue to cut their orders from manufacturers and imports, maintaining the downward pressure on the factory sector.

These data continue to show that the housing market remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates. This resiliency will make it more difficult for the (Federal Open Market Committee) to slow the economy,

These data continue to confirm that the manufacturing sector is in recession.

Although the fundamentals have deteriorated builders have been cautious, so there is no imbalance of unsold new homes. Therefore, as long as new home sales are maintained near current levels, housing construction can also continue near these levels.

Slower output and employment growth is dampening real income gains, which in turn is slowing spending, ... Although the monthly data continue to be quite volatile during this transition period, the underlying trends are unmistakable -- the economy is slowing from its torrid pace.

Sharp production cuts will continue to bring down inventories, which will set the stage for the economic recovery when spending revives.

The (Fed) will continue to focus policy on reviving economic growth.

In an environment of slower growth, steady job creation, weaker productivity gains, and modestly rising inflation that we envision for 2005, the FOMC will continue to lift its target federal funds rate.