Unseasonably mild weather in January, coming after unseasonably severe weather in December, generated a huge increase in housing starts. Moreover, February's weather is likely to generate a big decline in housing activity next month.
Volumes are still strong enough to generate a few new factory jobs amid robust productivity gains. Moreover, capital spending appears to be on track for another solid contribution to third quarter GDP.
Although housing should slow modestly over the balance of the year, it is unlikely to generate the major weakness typically associated with housing during an economic downturn.