Steven Wood Increased Quotations

Retail sales have slowed over the last six months in response to the slower pace of job creation, higher rates, and increased volatility in the stock market. Indeed, in the past two years there has been tight relationship between the Nasdaq and retail spending, suggesting further spending weakness in coming months.

Slowing income gains and increased uncertainty have savaged consumer spending. This has removed the only major support for the economy, insuring the recession will last, at least, into early next year.

Increased demand in expanding economies abroad and continued robust conditions at home support the production outlook, given the low inventory environment. The Fed is sure to view the economy as expanding at too fast a pace now that manufacturing is coming back and consumption remains quite strong.

In the past year, ... the number of people receiving state benefits has increased by more than a million. Although the pace of layoffs has eased, job creation remains nonexistent.