Steven Wood Orders Quotations

The data are heavily distorted by a large military contract and the surge in vehicle sales. Once these have dissipated, orders and shipments will sag again.

There is a clear improving trend in orders which provides support for the recovering manufacturing sector, ... Although some of the inventory building that occurred was likely Y2K related and will be reversed in the new year, the acceleration of both shipments and backlogs suggests that the manufacturing recovery has substantial staying power.

These data indicate that wholesale deliveries to retailers are falling quickly, responding to the slowing pace of retail sales. However, deliveries from manufacturers and imports have not slowed as sharply. Unless retail sales revive, wholesalers will continue to cut their orders from manufacturers and imports, maintaining the downward pressure on the factory sector.

However, the jump in new orders was too narrowly concentrated in civilian aircraft and defense orders to offer much more than modest encouragement. Although the worst may be over for the manufacturing sector, any recovery is likely to be sluggish.