We still expect economic activity to slow over the next several quarters as consumer spending slows further and housing declines more because of higher interest rates and energy costs. The absence of inflation will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.
The recent pace of growth in the leaders suggests that economic growth should slow from its 3.6 percent over the four quarters through the third quarter of 2005.
Although real consumer spending was strong it has slowed for two consecutive quarters and finished Q1 with very little momentum. In order to sustain recent strength in real consumer spending, job creation will need to accelerate further.