Steven Wood Six Quotations

Retail sales have slowed over the last six months in response to the slower pace of job creation, higher rates, and increased volatility in the stock market. Indeed, in the past two years there has been tight relationship between the Nasdaq and retail spending, suggesting further spending weakness in coming months.

Weakness in the composite index suggests that economic growth will slow over the next three to six months.

Despite this gain the outlook is still for sluggish growth over the next six months,

Although the level of sales is still relatively high, the solid growth of the past three years has been arrested, helping the Fed's efforts to slow the pace of economic growth. However, mortgage rates have declined over the last six weeks, so further substantial weakness may not be forthcoming.

Households' economic attitudes have declined modestly over the last six months, ... But the level suggests consumers remain very optimistic about their personal financial condition.

The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.

The leading indicators have been much more volatile since Hurricane Katrina. However, the trend has been generally flat over the past six months, at levels that are well below where they were 12 to 18 months ago.