Tohru Sasaki Market Quotations

If the U.S. indicators turn out stronger than expected this week, the market will start pricing in a fed funds rate of more than 5 percent. That should be supportive for the dollar.

U.S. payroll numbers are unlikely to give the dollar upward momentum, even if the numbers are good. Market sentiment toward the U.S. economy is worsening, buffeted by recent weaker data.

If the amount of capital flows into U.S. securities misses the market forecast for the second straight month, that could lead to further declines in the dollar given the current (market) conditions.

The price action following the release of today's indicator suggests that as long as expectations for an exit from zero interest rates are not brought forward greatly, the impact on the market will be limited.

Investors are fixated by the upcoming Fed statement. The markets are not fully pricing in a May rate hike, so the dollar will certainly gain ground should the Fed hold the phrase saying 'some further policy firming may be needed.

I don't think there will be any impact on the market from the replacement, at least for a few months.