Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
Saying that higher oil prices have not increased the risk of recession or serious economic slowdown is clearly not the same thing as saying that they have not had an impact.
On the price deflator the numbers are a little bit stronger, so I am not as excited about that price number for GDP.
These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
I have to come away with the view that the drop in crude prices offered the opportunity for a relief rally, although it didn't offer that much relief.
But what we've seen is if you hit the economy over the head enough times with higher energy prices and short-term interest rate hikes, it reacts.
The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
Buyers are going to be in a sweet spot in about three to six months. The speculators who are still holding properties will be panicking by then as their carrying costs mount. It won't be a bloodbath, but that's when prices should be at their lowest.
It's a little disappointing to see core up that much. I was hoping for surprise on the downside for core as we got in the PPI (Producer Price Index) yesterday.
It's a little disappointing to see core up that much, ... I was hoping for surprise on the downside for core as we got in the PPI (Producer Price Index) yesterday.
The movement in labor market conditions is a lot more important than the movement in energy prices. Only when labor market conditions are deteriorating have we historically seen that energy prices have an impact.
This is very good news. Workers may end up getting the purchasing power they've been lacking so far. While overall prices are still rising, we have good reason to believe energy prices will be going down.
It seems as though the inflation report provided a few component surprises but no overall surprises as apparel prices continued to drop despite the expectation that they would stabilize or rise slightly.
The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
While weather played a role in soft apparel sales, the high energy prices impacted overall sales. Net-net, the climate is likely to get better with improvements in the labor market.
While an economy is limping during the earliest or first stage of an expansion -- this is where we are -- the ability to pass on the effects of higher input prices like energy is quite limited. But as soon as the economy begins to gain traction, more of these prices can be passed on.
The new-home sales market is the canary in the coal mine. Builders have a better clue as to what the right price is to move a house.
I think the Fed certainly looks at this as building up as pricing power on the part of companies, ... But (the price index) is still within the tolerable range for the Fed. That's not to say the Fed can relax and go on vacation, but I would say they're a relatively benign.
There's always that danger that the Fed gets impatient here. But I think that most of the Fed governors today feel that gradualism is the best policy, because if they err on the side of doing too much, the price of being wrong is not so high.
There's always that danger that the Fed gets impatient here, ... But I think that most of the Fed governors today feel that gradualism is the best policy, because if they err on the side of doing too much, the price of being wrong is not so high.
Next week's producer price index or consumer price index could tip the Fed in favor of a June hike if they're on the upside.
The primary catalyst in the market remains energy, it continues to rule the day. But then we saw that energy prices started to go up, and that took some of the luster off the gains.
Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)
The impact of higher energy prices is starting to bite corporate America. It's either going to raise costs or lower demand.
Oil prices have not been a positive for the equity market with the potential for rising inflation.
The Federal Reserve and energy prices really have the fate of the economy in their hands.
The Fed will raise rates, but they're aware that higher energy prices might do some of their job. And inflation is not so high that they need to panic.
Given that we import more than 50 percent of our oil consumption from abroad, it is clear that as these prices rise, we are essentially transferring net wealth from U.S. consumers to oil producers that are mostly located overseas.
When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
Essentially, the energy prices outlook offers almost a lose, lose scenario. Bad news for inflation if they rise and bad news for the economy if they rise too much.