We are expecting to see some pressure on inflation. Companies are going to take advantage of strong demand to at least cover their cost increases.
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.
Activity in the manufacturing sector picked up early in the second quarter, in line with strong underlying fundamentals in the economy and stronger overseas demand. We can look forward to solid overall output growth in the second quarter of 2006.
Demand is strong enough for companies to raise prices. This will keep the Fed's bias toward higher rates intact through the second quarter of 2006.