In the first year of every recovery, inflation has fallen; and we think the core CPI will fall to 2 percent by year-end.
Tech will have the worst performance of any S&P sector in 2001 with operating earnings per share plunging 73 percent. But next year (2002) we believe tech earnings will snap back strongly.
This is a great PPI number. We have literally no wholesale inflation in the U.S. economy. The PPI went down, the core PPI was unchanged, and over the past year wholesale prices measured by the core PPI are barely up at all.
The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.