He doesn't want to see lightening strike twice, and risk giving the housing market another wind.
He's delivering a warning shot. The message is that they don't appear to see any problem with having monetary policy in a restrictive stance for some time.
It is probably close to its nadir but it will improve only slowly.
Such levels have typically coincided with a short-term contraction. After five years of stellar growth, the economy is now entering a more sedate growth phase, as is required to alleviate pressure on resources.
While the economy is down, it is not out for the count. Employment and profit expectations have risen and export intentions are at a four-year high.
The decline in business confidence seen over past months has been arrested.
There in something in today's release for everyone.
When it goes, it is going to go a country mile pretty quickly.
There's not a lot of investment opportunities out there, so yield is still the default play for the market. But when the New Zealand dollar turns, it will turn aggressively, and if we don't get yield demand it will fall by a country mile.
Is the economy in the midst of a recession? We find this difficult to believe.
The risk profile for inflation is just too significant to ignore. Ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored will be the Reserve Bank's primary aim, and this will require the talk to remain tough.
The risk profile for inflation is just too significant to ignore.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to reaffirm its no-cut stance, cementing yield-related strength for a while yet.
It's a question of relative risks and Bollard is more mindful of inflation. He will be comfortable with receding growth.
Confidence is a critical element if the economy is to maintain forward momentum. Expect growth to remain tepid but a recession to be averted.
I'm U.S. dollar bullish over the next three months, largely because the Fed will go to 4.75 percent and they'll leave the door open to 5 percent.
International oil prices have shifted to a higher level permanently.
Clark and Cullen have proven they are good at making governments work. No one will be in a hurry to call an early election.
The lift in pricing intentions to their highest levels since late 2000 represents a clear warning shot. The message is one of pricing pressure and inflation risks. Monetary policy will remain in a restrictive stance.
The housing market is not slowing sufficiently to comfort the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
The implicit message is that the U.S. dollar needs to go down.
The economy is far from being on the ropes.