We think that countries and areas of activity that have been weakest in the last couple of years are likely to see the strongest rebound in growth. Thus, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands should see more marked recoveries than Spain and France, where activity has held up well.
The first of the boomers turn 60 this year. They are about to retire, and they have been spending as if they were 30, for the last 30 years.
The housing market has become so stretched that the affordability ratio for first-time buyers, the folks who drive the incremental demand in the real estate sector, has deteriorated to levels last seen in the third quarter of 1989.