Some consuming nations - if not the market - are still asking OPEC to increase production, so I consider it highly likely that they will raise the quota by at least 500,000 barrels per day.
The market is reacting today as if oil at less than $74 a barrel is a bargain.
The market is extremely hesitant to go below USD60 a barrel and that is because of the Nigerian outages for the most part.
The market is extremely hesitant to go below $60 a barrel and that is because of the Nigerian outages for the most part.
The uncertainty in the Russian tax regime is definitely a problem. In my view however it is not greatly surprising. As barrel prices are far higher than anyone expected to expect these kind of deals - between companies and government - to remain stable isn't really possible.
The IEA have only predicted losses in refined crude production for September, and the reality is that 4 major US refineries with a total output of 900,000 barrels are still down, and they are expected to be for the next 2-3 months.
The question is where to set our sights next. The only cap I see coming up is on the order of $85 a barrel -- something equivalent in real terms to the highest we saw.
At 70 dollars per barrel governments seem prepared to act.
The crude market and the global economy have been quite willing to pay $60 a barrel without harm. The only thing that has happened is that the economic boom that gave us the fastest economic growth in 25 years has slowed a little bit to bring demand back in line.