It's the constant talk of attacks and military action that are heightening tensions again and helping push up prices. We should see a bit of a rebound in Chinese consumption this year. The market is going to remain very tight.
Copper is often perceived to be the barometer for market conditions and therefore a significant fall in copper prices could remove speculative support from other metals.
The market is not really factoring in the true impact of military action but the mere mention of it sends prices higher.
We saw last year just how much oil shot up after Ivan. Crude markets remain delicately balanced and if Katrina causes substantial damage to production facilities, oil prices will exceed $70 and could push toward $80 a barrel.
We saw last year just how much oil shot up after Ivan, ... Crude markets remain delicately balanced and if Katrina causes substantial damage to production facilities, oil prices will exceed $US70 and could push toward $US80 a barrel.
That area is solid with refining capacity. There's an element of panic in the market but that's not surprising given the lack of capacity worldwide at every level, refineries and oil wells.
With this week's stock announcement likely to show a fresh decline in gasoline, it adds to market fears caused by the switch to greener fuels.
What we've seen over the last couple of weeks with disruptions at copper mines has narrowed the opinion of whether the market is going to be in deficit or surplus. More and more people are thinking it's going to be in deficit this year.
Reports of market tightness at the time of settlement play into contract prices.
Obviously the main uncertainty in the steel market is the level of production from China. It's really the key uncertainty and that will impact on decisions made by steelmakers.