Against that, the market has started thinking about rate hikes in Europe in the first quarter of next year. That is going to prevent a large fall in the euro.
Based on our sense of positioning, excessively bearish sentiment, and risks that the economy does not slow as rapidly as hoped, we see greater upside potential for New Zealand dollar than further downside in the next month or two.
The currency and rate futures markets are pricing in a rate hike by year-end and two by the middle of next year and this is why the euro has strengthened, especially against the yen.