Ian Shepherdson Lear Quotations

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.

Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.

Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.

Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.

Clearly there is nothing here at all to comfort the Fed.

Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.

The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.

There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways.  But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,

The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.

Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,

This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,

The housing market is clearly on a roll again, despite the -- probably temporary -- dip in confidence.

The ISM survey clearly promises much bigger increases in production ahead, but for now the official data are lagging the survey a bit,

The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.

The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.

The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market, ... So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.

The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.

The impact of the hurricanes is now clearly diminishing,

It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.

The chairman's remarks clearly signal rates will rise this month, though we remain of the view that a November hike is not yet a done deal.

A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,

Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.

There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.