Ian Shepherdson Signal Quotations

The rebound in expectations since October is still big enough to signal strong first-quarter consumption, but not a sustained boom.

It signals that the labor market has now moved again to center stage in the Fed's analysis and policymaking process.

The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.

The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.

The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.

For now, claims signal strong payrolls and a lower unemployment rate.

The chairman's remarks clearly signal rates will rise this month, though we remain of the view that a November hike is not yet a done deal.

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.

A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.

He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.

If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.

No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.

Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.