There has been a rising floor underneath oil prices, ... Last year we were worried about $40 a barrel oil, and now $60 a barrel is the worry.
The big wild card this year is that there's little to no room for anything to go wrong. And certainly nothing like a refinery blowing up or a hurricane hitting the coast.
Data are slow to arrive, as is normal at this time on the calendar, but already it is clear that this year is not off to a flying start in terms of demand growth. Inventories are high in many places as well.