Ken Goldstein Labor Quotations

The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.

These data suggest the post-holiday labor market will remain relatively soft -- probably delivering a little less than 200,000 new jobs a month on average.

The storms and flooding, and now the rebuilding and dislocations in the Gulf Coast area, are taking place in a weakening national labor market.

The labor market remains on a high plateau that has prevailed in the last year and a half.

The labor market picture remains a bit cloudy. There are some bright spots where the job market may be picking up, but it's by no means a clear picture.

The labor market may finally be hitting bottom. While layoffs remain large, they are no longer intensifying. Job advertising volume has stopped declining, although it remains at very low levels.

The labor market indicators turned a little more positive this summer.

The labor market indicators reflect a loss of economic momentum, even eliminating the impact of the storms and flooding.

Given that we're at least a couple of months away from turnaround in the labor market, the fact that consumer confidence is not doing much worse than treading water is actually a good-news story.

A weakening national situation is not good news for the Gulf Coast area. Some workers seem reluctant to move to an area where the labor market was already weak.

Part of the real story here is that, through July, producers were still getting more output, with fewer labor hours put in. Productivity in the third quarter is probably going to be stronger than in the second quarter, confirming the idea that, while the stock market's not in good shape, the overall economy's not that bad.

Nothing is going to happen in terms of improving confidence until something happens in terms of an improving labor market, and that might well take until after New Year's.

Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.

I think we are going to get consistent job growth. The signals we're getting suggest we're on the road to better growth. Unless something else happens, then perhaps in a few months, we will finally get some good news in the labor market.

We discovered for the umpteenth time that what matters most for most Americans is the labor market.

The number of job ads per 100 participants in the labor force is consistently highest on the West and East coasts and in the Mountain area.

Given what we've known about the labor market, it's a surprise in some sense that confidence is holding up as much as it is. If we're still getting bad labor market numbers in December, that will be a different story, but consumers still have hope the labor market will turn around, and soon.

If the economy cools a little, the labor market may also cool. Even if energy prices were not going through the roof, the biggest road block would still be the cost of a new hire.