I personally am among those with the view that we actually are going to see consumers shut down.
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.