Michael Gavin Risk Quotations

Going forward, we expect the economy to show positive year-on-year and seasonally adjusted rates in the quarters ahead, but the 1.8 percent Central Bank estimate appears to have more downside than upside risk at the moment.

We think that with the risk of surprisingly tight U.S. monetary policy diminishing as the U.S. economy decelerates, and with the peso strong, the scales are tipped to a 50bp east at the January meeting.