Given the evidence of deteriorating investment efficiency, China needs to rebalance its growth by shifting away from investment toward consumption.
China's economy has so far performed better than people had expected. Export growth is also stronger than expected.
There are various hidden uncertainties if we look at the main growth engines. Exports depend on external factors and it will be a big question as to whether China's exports can be a single flower blossoming if the world economy slows next year.
We expect growth in fixed investment to slow from 27 percent last year to 15 percent in 2004 and around 10 percent in 2005,