Construction spending is always a lagging economic indicator, especially in commercial construction, because of the time it takes to plan, execute and build. I expect housing to be a stabilizer, but commercial construction to be a drag on economic growth for a while to come.
More and more jobs, both manufacturing and service jobs are sent overseas; these jobs won't come back any time soon.
By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.
Had this report showed another plunge in confidence, then I think it would have been a sure bet to expect another cut sometime in April,
The jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... The Fed keeps cutting rates as long as the jobless rate goes up. This time around is really no exception.
This time around, my guess is that the lead may end up being shorter than the historic average, ... I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the stock market being an almost coincident indicator.